美國(guó)銀行正以2020年疫情引發(fā)市場(chǎng)擔(dān)憂高峰以來(lái)最快的速度搶購(gòu)美國(guó)國(guó)債。加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(chǎng)策略師警告稱，瘋狂的購(gòu)買步伐可能會(huì)放緩。

根據(jù)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)編制的每周持有數(shù)據(jù)，截至 3 月 13 日的兩周內(nèi)，商業(yè)銀行從聯(lián)邦機(jī)構(gòu)購(gòu)買了 1030 億美元的國(guó)債和非抵押債券。

分析師通常使用這一類別來(lái)衡量對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)債的需求。

加拿大皇家銀行的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，這是自 2020 年 6 月以來(lái)最大的兩周百分比增幅。

美國(guó)商業(yè)銀行對(duì)美債的需求激增

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(chǎng)美國(guó)利率策略主管 Blake Gwinn 在一份報(bào)告中表示：

“由于存款余額仍然很高，貸款增長(zhǎng)放緩，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息周期迫在眉睫，銀行開(kāi)始在其投資組合中添加高收益國(guó)債是有意義的?！?/p>

然而，考慮到兩周波動(dòng)的幅度，加拿大皇家銀行分析師認(rèn)為，“可能還有一些更多的機(jī)械因素影響這一數(shù)據(jù)。至于具體是什么，我們并不完全確定?！?/p>

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾上周在為期兩天的聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)會(huì)議結(jié)束時(shí)發(fā)出的信息是，如果價(jià)格壓力繼續(xù)緩解，今年某個(gè)時(shí)候降息將是適當(dāng)?shù)摹?/p>

Gwinn補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，銀行購(gòu)買美國(guó)國(guó)債的激增并未引發(fā)市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)，這似乎表明銀行可能正在購(gòu)買短期國(guó)債。

他確實(shí)預(yù)計(jì)銀行對(duì)國(guó)債的需求將在中長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)普遍持續(xù)。

數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)最大的金融機(jī)構(gòu)主要購(gòu)買債券。

本周早些時(shí)候，道明證券策略師將近期銀行需求與美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)支持放緩資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表縮減的言論聯(lián)系起來(lái)。

達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席洛根一月初表示，政策制定者應(yīng)開(kāi)始考慮何時(shí)以及如何通過(guò)再投資更多資金來(lái)縮減 QT 計(jì)劃。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事沃勒在3月1日的講話中談到了這個(gè)話題，表示支持增加短期國(guó)債在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)資產(chǎn)中的比例。

然而，加拿大皇家銀行的格溫寫道：“當(dāng)銀行確實(shí)開(kāi)始增持美國(guó)國(guó)債時(shí)，更有可能是在長(zhǎng)期持續(xù)的時(shí)間內(nèi)零碎增持，而不是在兩周內(nèi)大規(guī)模購(gòu)買?！?/p>

太平洋投資管理公司（PIMCO）正在減少其對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)債的投資。

其首席投資官安德魯·鮑爾斯(Andrew Balls)向英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示，這家巨型債券基金持有的美國(guó)國(guó)債比平常少，更喜歡英國(guó)和加拿大等國(guó)的債券，因?yàn)樗麚?dān)心通脹重燃將迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息幅度遠(yuǎn)小于以往。比最新的“點(diǎn)圖”顯示的要多。

"Outside of the U.S., we're seeing more evidence that inflation is correcting," Bowles said. "I think you can see the balance of risks from the Fed cutting interest rates more slowly than the market expects, but outside of the U.S. some central banks may move more than the market expects."

Although long-term inflation expectations in the United States are lower, inflation in the United States remains significantly higher relative to the sharp fall in inflation from the 2023 peak in the United Kingdom and Europe.

The view from the firm, which has $1.9 trillion in assets under management, is similar to consensus expectations for a Fed rate cut, but Bowles worries about the risk of "increased economic activity and sustained inflation" in the U.S., adding "you'll see to an ongoing theme of American exceptionalism.”

Expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have fallen sharply in the past three months, with the ECB expected to cut interest rates four times in 2024, while the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve are expected to cut interest rates three times.

Finally, Barrs worries about a repeat of the surge in yields seen last fall, when markets fretted that government borrowing plans were larger than expected. "You can imagine this happening again," Powers said. "Neither Democrats nor Republicans seem concerned about the level of the fiscal deficit... If nothing exciting happens (like a UK debt crisis in 2022), the term premium is likely to slowly rise."

The chief investment officer of PIMCO said he prefers to invest in bonds that are more sensitive to interest rate changes in the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and Canada. In December last year, the Financial Times reported that Pimco's chief investment officer believed that the UK was at risk of a severe economic recession and that he was betting larger than usual on British government bonds. This is not a good backdrop for the United States, which is seeing increasing bond auctions.

Article forwarded from: Golden Ten Data

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