[海倫]2024 年是降息支點(diǎn)之年——世界各國(guó)央行將在此時(shí)做出讓步

時(shí)間：2024-03-13|瀏覽：331

歐元、美元、加元、俄羅斯盧布和捷克克朗作為紙幣放在桌子上。

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隨著大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的通脹放松，投資者正在密切關(guān)注利率決策，市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)今年將出現(xiàn)一系列降息。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人智庫(kù)在最近的一份報(bào)告中表示，雖然大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的利率在 2024 年仍將保持在高位，但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)今年晚些時(shí)候利率將出現(xiàn)溫和回落。

大多數(shù)央行從 2022 年初開始大幅上調(diào)政策利率，以抑制通脹。

這家全球情報(bào)公司表示，中國(guó)和日本仍然是全球緊縮周期中的例外，盡管北京的利率已開始小幅放松。

EIU還預(yù)計(jì)日本央行將在第二季度退出負(fù)利率政策。

美國(guó)

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾上周重申，如果通脹信號(hào)配合，他預(yù)計(jì)今年利率將開始下降，但沒(méi)有給出具體時(shí)間表。

根據(jù)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)首選指標(biāo)評(píng)估的通脹率目前為年率2.4%，仍領(lǐng)先于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)2%的目標(biāo)。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在 1 月份會(huì)議上將利率穩(wěn)定在 5.25% 至 5.5% 的范圍內(nèi)。

目前市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在 6 月份開始降息 25 個(gè)基點(diǎn)。

歐元區(qū)

歐洲央行上周也將政策利率維持在4%的歷史高位，暗示6月份之前不會(huì)降息。

央行承認(rèn)通脹放緩速度快于預(yù)期，并將年度通脹預(yù)期從平均 2.7% 下調(diào)至 2.3%。

歐洲央行的通脹目標(biāo)為 2%。

瑞士

瑞士2月份通脹率較上年同期上升1.2%，為近兩年半以來(lái)的最低水平，引發(fā)了人們對(duì)瑞士央行可能在3月21日會(huì)議上降息的希望。

瑞士央行目前的政策利率為1.75%，央行的通脹目標(biāo)范圍在0%至2%之間。

據(jù) LSEG 稱，3 月份降息 25 個(gè)基點(diǎn)的可能性超過(guò) 40%，這將使瑞士央行的關(guān)鍵利率降至 1.5%。

UBS expects the SNB to wait until the second quarter for its first key interest rate cut, while not ruling out the possibility of a cut this month.

Bank of Canada

In March, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting. Its governor said that it was too early to consider a cut.

Canada's inflation slowed to 2.9% in January, compared with a year ago. That's a drop from December's 3.4% and within the BOC's target range of 1% to 3%.

Turkey

Turkey's central bank kept its interest rate steady at 45% in February, ending its tightening cycle after eight straight hikes, with many expecting it to hold for most of 2024. The country's inflation currently stands at around 65%.

JPMorgan said in a research note that the Turkish central bank may cut its policy rate in November and December, keeping its year-end policy rate forecast of 45%.

Australia

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged in February at a 12-year high of 4.35%.

Nomura predicts the RBA will start cutting rates in August as inflation eases and unemployment rises. The firm said it expects the country to "narrowly avoid a recession."

In a recent note, ANZ noted that Australia's economy experienced a "continued slowdown" in the second half of 2023 as fourth-quarter GDP grew just 0.2% from the prior quarter. That comes after third-quarter GDP edged 0.3% higher from the previous three-month period.

New Zealand

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the official cash rate steady at 5.5% in its February meeting, forecasting that inflation will re-enter the 1% to 3% per year target band by September.

Auckland Savings Bank does not expect the RBNZ to start cutting the cash rate until November.

Indonesia

Indonesia's central bank kept its benchmark policy rate at 6% in its recent meeting.

While the Southeast Asian nation's consumer price inflation is now within the Bank Indonesia's targeted range of 1.5% to 3.5% for the year, Indonesia's central bank governor is considering a 75 basis point cut only in the second semester of the year.

"We are still watching closely is about the global spillover... mainly of the impact of U.S. monetary policy direction," Bank Indonesia governor Perry Warjiyo recently told CNBC's JP Ong.

BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit, expects the bank to lower the benchmarkrate to 5% by the end of 2024, starting in the second half of the year in tandem with the U.S. and other developed market central banks "in order to not raise undue depreciatory pressures on the Indonesian rupiah."

Bank of Japan

Unlike its peers, economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this year instead of cutting.

The BOJ is expected to move toward ending its negative interest rate policy by April, contingent on annual wage negotiations, said economists at Oxford Economics and Macquarie.

春季工資談判是日本通脹能否持續(xù)實(shí)現(xiàn)日本央行2%目標(biāo)的重要因素，而這是日本央行結(jié)束負(fù)利率政策的先決條件。