美聯(lián)儲理事克里斯·沃勒發(fā)表最新講話稱，2024年初的高通脹數(shù)據(jù)和強(qiáng)勁的就業(yè)增長強(qiáng)化了他“不急于”降息的觀點(diǎn)。

他強(qiáng)調(diào)，最近的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)支持今年推遲或減少降息次數(shù)。

當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間周三晚間，沃勒在紐約經(jīng)濟(jì)俱樂部發(fā)表了題為“There's Still No Rush”的演講。

他表示，最新的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)“告訴我，將利率維持在當(dāng)前的限制性水平是謹(jǐn)慎的做法，或許維持的時(shí)間比之前想象的要長，以幫助通脹可持續(xù)地向2%邁進(jìn)?！?

目標(biāo)向前?！?/p>

他稱最近的通脹數(shù)據(jù)“令人失望”，并表示希望在降息之前看到“至少幾個月更好的通脹數(shù)據(jù)”。

他說：

“在我看來，最近的數(shù)據(jù)表明減少降息總數(shù)或推遲降息是適當(dāng)?shù)摹Ｎ艺J(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出和勞動力市場仍然強(qiáng)勁，但降低通脹的進(jìn)展已經(jīng)放緩?；谶@些跡象，我認(rèn)為有沒有必要急于放松貨幣政策。”

美聯(lián)儲FOMC上周發(fā)布的政策聲明表示，雖然今年年初通脹有所回升，但2024年很可能會三次降息。美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾甚至暗示1月和2月通脹報(bào)告可能因季節(jié)性因素或其他臨時(shí)問題而有所夸大。

他還表示，他有信心通脹將繼續(xù)放緩，接近美聯(lián)儲2%的目標(biāo)。

相比之下，美聯(lián)儲理事會關(guān)鍵人物沃勒則表現(xiàn)得更為謹(jǐn)慎。

他說：

“我仍然相信，進(jìn)一步的進(jìn)展將使（美聯(lián)儲）今年開始降低聯(lián)邦基金利率的目標(biāo)范圍是合適的，但在取得進(jìn)展之前，我不準(zhǔn)備采取這一步驟?！?/p>

沃勒駁斥了人們的擔(dān)憂，即如果美聯(lián)儲維持高利率，經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會出現(xiàn)衰退或急劇放緩。

他說：

“幸運(yùn)的是，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)勁和勞動力市場的彈性意味著，在寬松政策之前等待一段時(shí)間的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)很小，遠(yuǎn)低于過早采取行動并抵消通脹進(jìn)展的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?！?/p>

沃勒的言論反映了美聯(lián)儲高級官員之間關(guān)于何時(shí)降息以及降息多少的分歧。

上周發(fā)布的點(diǎn)陣圖顯示，19 名官員中有 9 名預(yù)計(jì)降息兩次或更少。

投票委員會成員博斯蒂克表示，他預(yù)計(jì)今年只會降息一次。

Waller is a key figure at the Fed. He was among the hawks who advocated raising interest rates when inflation was rampant. However, before the end of last year, he changed his tune and became more willing to accept a rate cut amid signs that the labor market was cooling. Waller is now striking a middle ground and urging a slow-moving approach until the Fed has a clearer picture of inflation trends.

"I want to avoid cutting interest rates too early, lest inflation continue to rebound," he said. Waller used the word "no rush" four times in the speech, including in the title.

Nick Timiraos, a well-known Wall Street Journal reporter and known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," wrote an article on February 28, praising Waller for appearing to be very prescient and predicting that the United States could push inflation down to 2% two years ago. target while preventing the unemployment rate from skyrocketing. Timiraos pointed out that Waller has become one of the most watched officials at the Fed, and some analysts believe that Waller may be Powell's successor if Trump returns to the White House next year.

Article forwarded from: Golden Ten Data

熱點(diǎn)：減少 推遲 降息