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[瑪麗]美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)維持利率穩(wěn)定,表明尚未準(zhǔn)備好開始降息

時(shí)間:2024-02-01|瀏覽:282

華盛頓——美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)周三發(fā)出了不溫不火的信號,表示已完成加息,但明確表示尚未準(zhǔn)備好開始降息。

在本周結(jié)束的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)為期兩天的會(huì)議上,聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)發(fā)表了一份經(jīng)過重大修改的聲明,刪除了表示愿意繼續(xù)加息直至通脹得到控制并朝著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)第二次降息目標(biāo)邁進(jìn)的措辭。 %通脹目標(biāo)。

不過,該行還表示,由于通脹仍高于央行目標(biāo),目前尚無降息計(jì)劃。

該聲明進(jìn)一步提供了有關(guān)加息的有限指導(dǎo),僅概述了將進(jìn)入政策“調(diào)整”的因素。

聲明稱:“委員會(huì)預(yù)計(jì),在對通脹持續(xù)向 2% 邁進(jìn)更有信心之前,不宜降低目標(biāo)范圍?!?/p>

雖然聲明確實(shí)濃縮了政策制定者在評估政策時(shí)會(huì)考慮的因素,但并未明確排除更多加息的可能性。

一個(gè)顯著的變化是取消了貨幣政策的滯后效應(yīng)作為考慮因素。

官員們普遍認(rèn)為調(diào)整至少需要 12 至 18 個(gè)月才能生效。

"In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," the statement said. That language replaced a bevy of factors including "the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments."Those changes were part of an overhaul in which the Fed seeks to chart a course ahead as inflation data points move lower while economic growth has been resilient.The statement indicated that economic growth has been "solid" and noted the progress made on inflation."The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance," the FOMC missive said. "The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks."Gone from the statement was a key clause that had referenced "the extent of any additional policy firming" that might come. Some Fed watchers had been looking for language to emphasize that additional rate hikes were unlikely, but the statement left the question at least somewhat open.Going into the meeting, markets had expected the Fed could begin reducing its benchmark overnight borrowing rate as soon as March, with May also a possible launching point.Policymakers, though, have been more circumspect about their intentions, cautioning that they see no need to move quickly as they watch the data unfold. Committee members in December indicated a likelihood of three quarter-percentage point rate cuts this year, less ambitious than the six that futures markets are pricing, according to the CME Group.More immediately, the committee, for the fourth consecutive time, unanimously voted not to raise the fed funds rate. The key rate is targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in nearly 23 years.Markets are awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's news conference at 2:30 p.m. ET for more clues on monetary policy.The Fed has been riding a wave of decelerating inflation, a strong labor market and solid economic growth, giving it both leeway to start easing up on monetary policy and caution about growth that could reaccelerate and drive prices higher again. Along with 11 rate hikes, the Fed also has been allowing its bond holdings to roll off, a process that has shaved more than $1.2 trillion off the central bank balance sheet.The statement indicated that the balance sheet runoff will continue apace.Many economists now are adopting a soft-landing narrative where the Fed can bring inflation down without torpedoing economic growth.Separate reports Wednesday indicated that the labor market is softening, but so are wages.

薪資處理公司 ADP 報(bào)告稱,1 月份私營企業(yè)僅新增 107,000 名員工,這一數(shù)字低于市場預(yù)期,但仍表明勞動(dòng)力市場正在擴(kuò)張。

此外,勞工部報(bào)告稱,就業(yè)成本指數(shù)(美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)密切關(guān)注工資帶來的通脹信號的一項(xiàng)指標(biāo))第四季度僅增長 0.9%,是 2021 年第二季度以來的最小增幅

。通過核心個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出衡量的價(jià)格在 12 月份上漲了 2.9%,為 2021 年 3 月以來的最低水平。在六個(gè)月和三個(gè)月的基礎(chǔ)上,核心個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出價(jià)格均達(dá)到或低于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的目標(biāo)。

在另一件事中,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)還宣布將改變高級官員和員工的投資政策。

這些變化擴(kuò)大了覆蓋范圍,包括任何有權(quán)訪問“聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)機(jī)密信息”的人,并表示一些工作人員可能需要提交經(jīng)紀(jì)報(bào)表或其他文件,以核實(shí)披露的準(zhǔn)確性。

這些變化是在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在新冠疫情大流行初期對政策進(jìn)行重大調(diào)整之際,多名美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員使用私人賬戶進(jìn)行交易引發(fā)爭議的。

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