作為 Polymarket 最活躍的賭徒，多默在過去三年中通過預(yù)測眾多賽事的結(jié)果贏得了近 70 萬美元。

他正確猜測 Sam Bankman-Fried 將被判處 25 年監(jiān)禁，因此獲得了 50,000 美元。

多默又贏了 5 萬美元，賭薩姆·奧特曼將被解雇 OpenAI 首席執(zhí)行官職務(wù)。

不過，和其他賭徒一樣，他也承擔(dān)了自己的損失。

今年早些時候，他因押注美國監(jiān)管機構(gòu)不會批準(zhǔn)以太坊 ETF 而損失了 12 萬美元。5 月份，以太坊 ETF 終于獲得了批準(zhǔn)。而他預(yù)計 7 月份的損失幾乎肯定會達到 26 萬美元。

即使如此，他還是不能放棄。

“我就是喜歡交易，”多默爾說，他喜歡使用化名?！拔铱赡苊刻熘凰奈鍌€小時?！?/p>

多元化市場繁榮

他并不是唯一一個。隨著美國總統(tǒng)大選升溫，加密貨幣成為意外熱門話題，Polymarket 正在蓬勃發(fā)展。

Dune Analytics 的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，每月有超過 20,000 名交易員在該點對點賭博平臺上投入 5600 萬美元，是 12 個月前該平臺交易量的八倍。

多默 (Domer) 的 Polymarket 頭像是瑞恩·高斯林 (Ryan Gosling) 扮演的芭比娃娃肯 (Ken)，他已經(jīng)下注了——他賭 44,000 美元賭總統(tǒng)喬·拜登 (Joe Biden) 不會退出總統(tǒng)競選，這是一個相當(dāng)安全的賭注。

他還押注 8,700 美元，押共和黨提名候選人唐納德·特朗普將贏得普選。2020 年，拜登比特朗普多贏了 700 多萬張選票。（多默說他會投票給拜登。）

這只是選舉活動的一小部分。

Polymarket 有 129 個與比賽相關(guān)的市場。有些賭注相當(dāng)晦澀難懂：埃隆·馬斯克本周會發(fā)多少條推文？誰將成為下一位飾演詹姆斯·邦德的演員？

甚至還有一個小小的 2,000 美元的賭注池，賭拜登在 6 月 27 日的辯論中是否會說“胡說八道”這個詞。多默爾有 16 美元的賭注，賭他會說。

押注有效市場

從很多方面來看，這都是 Polymarket 的黃金時刻。該網(wǎng)站于 2020 年上線，集體育博彩和預(yù)測分析于一體。

Polymarket 首席執(zhí)行官兼創(chuàng)始人 Shayne Coplan 將該平臺設(shè)計為世界上最大的加密貨幣預(yù)測市場。所有賭注都以 USDC（Circle 的美元掛鉤穩(wěn)定幣）進行，加密貨幣愛好者紛紛涌向該網(wǎng)站。

Polymarket 并不依賴軟件程序進行預(yù)測，而是利用賭徒對行動的無限興趣。

你知道泰勒·斯威夫特的最新專輯將在排行榜上停留幾周嗎？中國今年會入侵臺灣嗎？今年夏天誰將奪得美洲杯足球賽的冠軍？

您可以通過購買特定結(jié)果的股份來押注這些查詢。當(dāng)您和其他投注者這樣做時，即使您不再下注，您的賭注價值也會上升，或者下降，視情況而定。

Shares cost pennies. If you’re wrong, those pennies collapse to zero cents. If you’re right, the shares rise to a dollar.

‘I’ve let go of being too attached to wins or losses.’

Domer

The model essentially relies on the efficiency of the marketplace to make guesses about an outcome possible. In that sense, Polymarket reflects many of the same dynamics at play in the capital markets — stocks go up and down, after all, based on investors’ assumptions.

So, too, do the shares in the many betting pools on Polymarket. “It’s probably the best approximation versus listening to so-called experts or pundits, or getting your news in a very biased fashion,” Domer said.

Thanks to its Discord channel, which lets users make suggestions for new markets in real time, Polymarket rapidly captures the zeitgeist and turns it into a bet.

Trump coin, or not?

On Monday, for example, debate erupted over whether Donald Trump actually created another Trump-inspired meme coin called DJT.

Today, there are a dozen different bets on Polymarket centred on the token.

The largest market, at $3.4 million, asks simply whether the token is real. Another $1.2 million bets on whether Trump’s son, Barron Trump, launched DJT.

Punters are even speculating on whether Martin Shkreli, the convicted fraudster and onetime hedge fund manager, will go back to prison this year. Shkreli, who has more than 190,000 followers on X, has been arguing that DJT has ties to the Trump team.

An insider with direct knowledge of decisions surrounding the Trump campaign told DL News on Wednesday that the campaign wasn’t involved in the project.

Onchain sleuth ZachXBT was also awarded $150,000 by analytics firm Arkham for correctly identifying the token’s creator as Shkreli himself.

DJT action

Of course, Domer has a hand in the DJT action.

Besides betting Shkreli $70,000 on X that Trump has nothing to do with the token, he’s also bet $3,200 that Shkreli won’t see any jail time despite the antics.

The DJT market is just one of 128,000 that Domer follows.

That’s another quirk of Polymarket. You can see everything anyone’s gambling on, including how much they’ve won or lost. There are even profit rankings across a day, a week, a month, and since the first bet a trader made.

On Friday, for instance, Domer has already made nearly $12,000.

Domer epitomises Polymarket’s rise as the go-to betting platform for crypto enthusiasts.

Domer, who’s based in Las Vegas, used to be a professional poker player. In 2007, he started dabbling in Intrade, one of the first prediction markets that eventually shut down in 2013, as well as PredictIt.

Now, he spends 100 hours a week on Polymarket. His bets are mostly political, but he’s also betting $23,700 that weed won’t be rescheduled in the US, another $15,800 that a cat meme coin will reach unicorn status, and $6,300 that Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai won’t be fired or step down this year.

Next month’s different, though. It’s his biggest bet yet.

他與化名交易員 Gigantic Rebirth 打賭，押注 26 萬美元，賭特朗普不會贏得共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人提名。特朗普已經(jīng)是共和黨的推定候選人，并將于 7 月在密爾沃基舉行的共和黨全國大會上正式成為共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人。

開始了。我押注了 2024 年的一大筆錢：我押 26 萬美元，GCR 押 20 萬美元，賭特朗普是否是共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人。

— Domer (@Domahhhh) 2022 年 6 月 15 日

多默表示，他將通過押注特朗普競選搭檔的各候選人來收回大部分損失。例如，他購買了價值 12,600 美元的佛羅里達州參議員馬可·盧比奧贏得提名的股票。隨著盧比奧的前景好轉(zhuǎn)，這筆賭注的價值飆升了 164%。

同樣，他還押注俄亥俄州參議員 JD Vance 將獲得特朗普的提名，而這一賭注的價值已上漲 83%。如果盧比奧擊敗 Vance 贏得副總統(tǒng)提名，這將在很大程度上證明 Polymarket 可預(yù)測系統(tǒng)的有效性。

渴望行動

至少，Polymarket 的設(shè)計將簡單的問題轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)辇嫶蠖鴦討B(tài)的市場。

這使得像多默這樣渴望行動的投機者可以在市場收盤前交易新聞。

盡管如此，他仍然保持著客觀的態(tài)度。他顯然很高興能參加比賽。

他說：“我可能會因為這個愚蠢的事情損失 15,000 美元，但也許兩天后，我就會因為另一件愚蠢的事情賺到 16,000 美元?！?/p>

“我已經(jīng)不再過于執(zhí)著于勝利或失敗了?！?/p>

Liam Kelly 是DL News

的 DeFi 記者

熱點：Polymarket 上癮 特朗普