盡管高利率和相對強(qiáng)勢的美元對金價不利，但在美國經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)強(qiáng)勁和地緣政治緊張局勢加劇的背景下，金價周一延續(xù)強(qiáng)勁漲勢，盤中再創(chuàng)歷史新高。

在一些華爾街分析師看來，金價的強(qiáng)勢預(yù)計將至少持續(xù)到今年下半年?；ㄆ齑饲皩ⅫS金描述為發(fā)達(dá)市場的“衰退對沖工具”。也有人認(rèn)為，俄烏沖突、加沙戰(zhàn)爭等地緣政治動蕩帶來的波動可能為金價提供進(jìn)一步支撐。

但并非所有人都相信金價將繼續(xù)上漲。

“我認(rèn)為有兩個因素（推動了當(dāng)前金價的上漲），”國際資本市場協(xié)會（ICMA）高級顧問鮑勃·帕克（Bob Parker）周一接受采訪時表示。

他提到的第一個因素是“追趕效應(yīng)”。帕克表示：“如果你看看去年和今年年初黃金相對于全球股市的表現(xiàn)，就會發(fā)現(xiàn)黃金遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后?！?“所以現(xiàn)在追趕效應(yīng)正在發(fā)揮作用。投資者注意到黃金落后了，所以他們正在增加黃金敞口?！?/p>

另一個難以獲得數(shù)據(jù)的因素是，一些央行確實在購買黃金，特別是在亞洲，這些央行正在增加黃金在其儲備中的比例。

展望未來，帕克表示，黃金的基本面似乎描繪出看跌的景象，包括美元走強(qiáng)、債券收益率上升、人們對美聯(lián)儲降息計劃和反通脹進(jìn)程的擔(dān)憂日益加劇。

“坦率地說，所有這些因素實際上都表明黃金幾乎沒有什么上漲空間，我認(rèn)為它現(xiàn)在很容易遭受挫折，”帕克說。

市場參與者一直在密切關(guān)注美聯(lián)儲官員有關(guān)今年可能降息次數(shù)的評論。如果3月份通脹仍然居高不下且就業(yè)增長繼續(xù)超出預(yù)期，那么美聯(lián)儲今年降息的可能性可能會降低。

白銀會超越黃金嗎？

法國巴黎財富管理公司首席投資官Edmund Shing周一在接受采訪時表示：“一段時間以來，我們一直非?？春觅F金屬，但即使是我們也對黃金的強(qiáng)勢感到有些困惑?！?/p>

他進(jìn)一步指出，“黃金的有趣之處在于，我認(rèn)為從中期來看，黃金價格已經(jīng)完全脫離了與實際利率和美元的傳統(tǒng)相關(guān)性，這是非常令人鼓舞的?！?/p>

Shing said gold appears to have received some boost as investors "look to the longer term future" and focus on issues such as U.S. debt sustainability. Like Parker, Shing also highlighted the role that central bank demand has played in boosting gold prices. "Let's not forget that central banks around the world, certainly in China, India and emerging markets in particular, have been steadily accumulating gold," he said.

He added, “What’s probably more exciting right now is the reaction we’re seeing in other precious metals, especially silver which is finally starting to catch up. But it’s still well below its all-time high of $50 an ounce set in 2011.”

Gold and silver prices have traditionally shown a strong positive correlation, although silver is sometimes described as gold's "poor relative." Many analysts believe that silver is expected to outperform gold in the second half of this year.

Related reading: The bottom of gold prices is gradually rising! Silver bulls may be ready to explode

Related reading: After missing out on the gold rally, speculators are flocking to silver, betting on latecomers to come out on top!

Related reading: Don’t just focus on gold! Silver may be next to shine

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data

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