非農(nóng)數(shù)據(jù)強(qiáng)勁帶動(dòng)主流貨幣跌后反彈

美國(guó)3月新增非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)30.3萬(wàn)人，繼續(xù)大幅超過(guò)預(yù)期平均20萬(wàn)人，創(chuàng)去年5月以來(lái)最大增幅。數(shù)據(jù)公布后，比特幣小幅下跌，隨后反彈至68000美元左右高位。價(jià)格在67,000美元處產(chǎn)生較大成交量，短期內(nèi)在此位置形成支撐位。目前價(jià)格位于支撐上方，需要繼續(xù)觀察市場(chǎng)是否有足夠的上漲動(dòng)力。

香港Web3會(huì)議進(jìn)行中，木姐連上比特幣平臺(tái)，預(yù)測(cè)2030年比特幣將漲至150萬(wàn)美元

當(dāng)被問(wèn)及比特幣的價(jià)格將如何發(fā)展時(shí)，ARK Invest 首席執(zhí)行官兼首席投資官 Cathie Wood 回應(yīng)道：

凱茜·伍德：

我被從不同的角度問(wèn)過(guò)這個(gè)問(wèn)題。我們多角度分析的結(jié)果是，2030年比特幣將漲至150萬(wàn)美元。這個(gè)價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)來(lái)自于對(duì)機(jī)構(gòu)的調(diào)查，利用浮動(dòng)比率和波動(dòng)率分析。此前對(duì)比特幣2030年的價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)為60萬(wàn)美元，但比特幣現(xiàn)貨ETF的通過(guò)將推動(dòng)比特幣價(jià)格在2030年達(dá)到150萬(wàn)美元。

如果我去年給你這個(gè)數(shù)字，它會(huì)接近 60 萬(wàn)美元。為什么我們要增加 60 萬(wàn)美元到 150 萬(wàn)美元？因?yàn)镾EC給主流機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)行現(xiàn)貨比特幣ETF開(kāi)了綠燈。如果你根據(jù)現(xiàn)代投資組合理論來(lái)分配資產(chǎn)，分配給比特幣的資產(chǎn)的 5% 會(huì)給我們帶來(lái) 150 萬(wàn)美元的估計(jì)數(shù)字，因?yàn)槲覀冋J(rèn)為投資機(jī)構(gòu)會(huì)朝這個(gè)方向發(fā)展。

距離今天比特幣減半還有大約13天（2024.04.05）

減半倒計(jì)時(shí)：https://www.binance.com/en/events/bitcoin-halving

市場(chǎng)技術(shù)和情緒環(huán)境分析

情感分析組件

技術(shù)指標(biāo)

價(jià)格走勢(shì)

過(guò)去一周，BTC價(jià)格下跌-3.24%，ETH價(jià)格下跌-6.55%。

上圖為近一周BTC價(jià)格走勢(shì)圖

上圖為近一周ETH價(jià)格走勢(shì)圖

該表顯示了過(guò)去一周的價(jià)格變化率。

價(jià)量分布圖（支撐位和阻力位）

過(guò)去一周，BTC和ETH價(jià)格在低位形成新的密集交易區(qū)域。

上圖為近一周BTC集中交易區(qū)域分布情況。

上圖為近一周ETH密集交易區(qū)域分布情況。

該表顯示了過(guò)去一周BTC和ETH的周密集交易區(qū)間。

成交量和持倉(cāng)量

過(guò)去一周，BTC和ETH交易量最大，連續(xù)4.2次下跌； BTC 和 ETH 的持倉(cāng)量均略有下降。

The top of the above picture shows the price trend of BTC, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.

The top of the above picture shows the price trend of ETH, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.

Historical Volatility vs. Implied Volatility

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was the highest at 4.2; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH both decreased compared to the beginning of the week.

The yellow line is the historical volatility, the blue line is the implied volatility, and the red dot is its 7-day average

Event-driven

After the release of non-farm data at 20:30 (Beijing time) on April 5, 2024, Bitcoin fell slightly and then rebounded to a high of around US$68,000. The price generated a large turnover at US$67,000, forming a support level at this position in the short term. The current price is above the support, and we need to continue to observe whether the market has enough upward momentum.

Sentiment Indicators

Momentum Sentiment

In the past week, among Bitcoin/gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, gold was the strongest, while Nasdaq performed the worst.

The above picture shows the trend of different assets in the past week.

Lending Rate_Lending Sentiment

Over the past week, the average annualized return on USD lending was 14.8%, and short-term interest rates rose to around 15%.

The yellow line is the highest price of the USD interest rate, the blue line is 75% of the highest price, and the red line is the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price.

The table shows the average return of USD interest rate for different holding days in the past

Funding Rate_Contract Leverage Sentiment

In the past week, the average annualized return on BTC fees was 22.5%, and contract leverage sentiment rebounded from a low level.

The blue line is the funding rate of BTC on Binance, and the red line is its 7-day average

The table shows the average return of BTC for different holding days in the past

Market Correlation_Consensus Sentiment

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week rose to around 0.85, resulting in relatively consistent market conditions among different varieties.

In the above figure, the blue line is the bitcoin price, and the green line is ['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'dgb', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx'] overall correlation

Market Breadth_Overall Sentiment

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 12.4% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 12.4% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 15.5% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 7% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that the overall market entered a relatively weak stage.

下載['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', ankr, ant、ape、apt、arb、ar、astr、atom、音頻、avax、axs、bal、樂(lè)隊(duì) '、'bat'、'bch'、'bigtime'、'blur'、'bnb'、'btc'、' zelo'、'cfx'、'chz'、'ckb'、'comp'、'crv'、cvx、cyber、dash、dgb、doge、dot、dydx、egld、enj、ens、eos 等、eth ' , 'fet', '文件', '流', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', '熱', 'icp', . icx、imx、inj、iot、iotx、jasmy、kava、klay、ksm、ldo、link、loom、lpt'、'lqty'、'lrc'、'ltc'、'luna 2'、'magic'、'mana '、'matic'、'meme'、'我的'、'mkr'、'附近'、'neo'、海洋、一、ont、op、pendle、qnt、qtum、rndr、玫瑰、符文、rvn、沙子、 '。 sei'、'sfp'、'skl'、'snx'、'sol'、'ssv'、'stg'、'storj'、'stx'、'sui'、'壽司'、'sxp'、'theta' 、 tia、trx、t、uma、uni、vet、waves、wld、woo、xem、xlm、xmr、'xrp'、'xtz'、'yfi'、'zec'、'zen'、'zil'、' zrx'] 30 天前

總結(jié)

過(guò)去一周的市場(chǎng)中，比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）的價(jià)格均出現(xiàn)一定程度的下跌。歷史波動(dòng)率和成交量在連續(xù)下跌4.2時(shí)最大，持倉(cāng)量較周初有所減少。 BTC、ETH隱含波動(dòng)率較周初有所下降。此外，高位資金費(fèi)率回落，表明合約交易情緒大幅下降。整體市場(chǎng)已進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)廣度指標(biāo)相對(duì)疲軟的階段。事件方面，4月5日非農(nóng)數(shù)據(jù)公布后，主流貨幣價(jià)格小幅下跌后反彈。本周，dcBot 的成員也將出現(xiàn)在香港 Web3 會(huì)場(chǎng)。如果您有興趣，可以聯(lián)系TG進(jìn)行預(yù)約。

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