本周一系列強(qiáng)勁的美國(guó)數(shù)據(jù)讓人們對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)首次降息的時(shí)機(jī)產(chǎn)生疑問(wèn)。

周五美國(guó)三大股指均收低。

納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾指數(shù)連續(xù)兩周下跌，道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)連續(xù)三周下跌。

然而，在降息樂(lè)觀情緒的推動(dòng)下，歐洲股市連續(xù)第八周上漲，這是自 2018 年以來(lái)最長(zhǎng)的連漲紀(jì)錄。

比特幣從歷史高位回落，而美元指數(shù)錄得自一月中旬以來(lái)的最大周漲幅。

受到加息傳聞提振的日元表現(xiàn)一直令人失望。

周五美元兌日元上漲逾0.5%。

金價(jià)四周來(lái)首次下跌，跌破每盎司2160美元。

俄羅斯、烏克蘭以及巴以之間的沖突再次升級(jí)。

原油本周上漲近4%，美油重回80美元關(guān)口。

值得注意的是，銅價(jià)突然爆發(fā)，倫銅11個(gè)月來(lái)首次突破9000美元，一周漲幅近6%。

新一周的市場(chǎng)大戰(zhàn)即將打響。

投資者將迎來(lái)2024年迄今央行決策最密集的一周。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和日本央行將主導(dǎo)本次央行利率周，其影響力占全球經(jīng)濟(jì)近一半。

請(qǐng)坐穩(wěn)并支持。

以下為新一周（均為北京時(shí)間）市場(chǎng)關(guān)注重點(diǎn)：

央行消息：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)領(lǐng)銜超級(jí)央行周，黃金多頭會(huì)再次爆發(fā)還是崩盤在即？

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)：聚焦點(diǎn)陣圖

周四凌晨2:00，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)發(fā)布利率決定和經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期摘要。

周四凌晨2點(diǎn)30分，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾召開貨幣政策新聞發(fā)布會(huì)

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)周四凌晨的決定和鮑威爾的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)無(wú)疑是最重要的。

投資者將能夠探討依然強(qiáng)勁的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)是否會(huì)導(dǎo)致美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員放棄降息意圖，或者他們對(duì)今年三次降息的預(yù)期是否仍在軌道上。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)下周不會(huì)改變利率幾乎已成定局，市場(chǎng)焦點(diǎn)集中在點(diǎn)陣圖上。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的最新預(yù)測(cè)可能會(huì)顯示美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)。

接受彭博社調(diào)查的大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)，政策制定者將計(jì)劃在 2024 年進(jìn)行三次降息，第一次是在 6 月，但超過(guò)三分之一的人預(yù)計(jì)降息次數(shù)會(huì)有所減少，這會(huì)帶來(lái)鷹派的驚喜。

Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said: "The biggest risk next week is that the dot plot that is the global focus is showing a 50 basis point rate cut this year, not 75 basis points." It is worth noting. What's more, Friday's interest rate swap pricing showed that by December this year, the market expected an interest rate cut of less than 75 basis points. On the same day, U.S. economists at JPMorgan Chase updated their forecasts. They now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year, instead of the previous 125 basis points.

Commerzbank predicts that gold prices could hit a new record if the Fed's new forecasts and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at a press conference are interpreted as increasing the likelihood of a faster rate cut. Goldman Sachs believes that the most likely trend for gold prices in the near future is to enter another consolidation phase.

Analysts at Dailyfx said that if policymakers signal their intention to reduce interest rates, we could see bond yields and the dollar move higher. This should be negative for gold prices. Gold prices are managing to hold on to the support at $2,150. Bulls must aggressively protect this technical area to prevent selling pressure from escalating; failure to do so could trigger a retracement towards $2,085. In case of further weakness, the focus will be on $2,065. On the other hand, if the bulls regain control of the market and trigger a bullish reversal from current levels, the first level of resistance lies at the record high set earlier this month at 2195, with further upside raising concerns about the trendline near 2205. Resistance concerns.

Other central banks: Is the Bank of Japan imperative?

At 11:30 on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision; at 12:30, Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Bullock held a monetary policy press conference.

On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision (the specific time is to be determined); at 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda held a monetary policy press conference

At 16:45 on Wednesday, European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech

At 01:30 on Thursday, the Bank of Canada released the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting.

At 16:30 on Thursday, the Swiss National Bank announced its interest rate decision

At 20:00 on Thursday, the Bank of England releases its interest rate decision and meeting minutes

The Bank of Japan's decision on Tuesday will be the most closely watched in decades as officials decide whether to end the world's last period of negative interest rates now or wait until April. Rengo, Japan's largest union, announced that it had secured a 5.28% wage increase, the largest increase in 30 years. According to Nikkei, the Bank of Japan’s main plan is to adjust short-term interest rates to a range of 0%-0.1%. Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities chief bond strategist said the Bank of Japan may abandon negative interest rates and yield curve control (YCC) next week given the stronger-than-expected outcome of wage negotiations. Taro Saito, director of economic research at NLI Research Institute, said that if the Bank of Japan remains on hold now, the market will become volatile and the yen may plummet.

Also on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to keep its cash rate at 4.35% after inflation data for January came in below expectations. Investors will be watching to see whether the Fed maintains its hawkish stance or signals a possible shift in the next few months.

For Thursday's SNB decision, most economists expect it to be on hold, although two respondents in a Bloomberg survey expected officials to cut interest rates rather than wait for larger central banks to begin their easing cycles.

Bank of England policymakers will see new inflation data on Wednesday and the latest PMI data on Thursday before deciding whether to keep interest rates on hold. With consumer price growth slowing but still likely to remain well above the 2% target, the Bank of England is in no rush to ease policy. Observers are likely to focus on the outcome of the vote among officials on the central bank's monetary policy committee, which could see a tripartite situation emerge again between those who want to keep rates unchanged and those who support a rate cut or hike.

"After abandoning its tightening bias at its February meeting, we don't think the MPC would mind changing its guidance," Bloomberg Economics' Dan Hanson and Ana Andrade wrote in a note. "The tone may come in May." A bigger transformation.”

ING said the Bank of England is expected to reiterate next Thursday that interest rates need to remain restrictive for an extended period, suggesting it is too early to consider policy easing. Analysts at BNP Paribas continue to be optimistic about the pound, saying that if the Bank of England closes the door to interest rate cuts, it will support the pound.

Important data: The data tide is fierce, and the U.S. index is expected to return to 104

18:00 on Monday, Eurozone February CPI monthly rate/annual rate final value

Tuesday 20:30, Canadian February CPI monthly rate

At 15:00 on Wednesday, the German PPI monthly rate in February, the British CPI monthly rate in February, and the British retail price index in February monthly rate

Thursday 08:30, Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in February

European trading on Thursday, France/Germany/Eurozone March manufacturing PMI initial value, UK March manufacturing/services PMI

Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims, US fourth quarter current account, US March Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index

Friday 07:30, Japan’s February core CPI annual rate

Friday 15:00, UK February seasonally adjusted monthly retail sales rate

Friday 20:30, Canadian January retail sales monthly rate

In addition to the central bank decision, next week's data wave will also be fierce. ING believes that the U.S. dollar index is expected to return to 104 before the Federal Reserve's decision. The U.S. dollar next week will be more dependent on data rather than the Federal Reserve's forward guidance. Regardless of whether Powell is hawkish or not, the recent strength of U.S. data will hardly encourage a massive sell-off of the U.S. dollar.

The Eurozone, which has recently been under pressure to cut interest rates, will release February CPI on Monday. Previously, as inflation in the Eurozone fell less than expected in January, which poured cold water on expectations of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank, investors can pay attention to whether the data this time can live up to their expectations. Several members of the European Central Bank have expressed an openness to cutting interest rates in June, which has also been motivating European stock markets to rise.

Alex Cohen and Michalis Rousakis, FX strategists at Bank of America Research, said in a note that the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cut should have a greater impact on foreign exchange markets than the European Central Bank's rate cut. Bank of America expects the U.S. dollar to weaken and expects EUR/USD to rise to 1.15 by the end of the year, from the current level of 1.0942.

Next week there will also be abundant data in the UK. The February CPI will be released the day before the Bank of England's decision. The importance is self-evident. The overall annual inflation rate is expected to drop to 3.6% from 4% in January. That would mark another two-year low, cementing a clear downward trend and keeping hopes of a rate cut alive.

Sterling has outperformed 92% of global currencies so far this year, supported by the idea that whenever the Bank of England decides to cut interest rates, it will be after the Federal Reserve. Obviously, if anything happens that causes the market to rethink this, it will send GBP/USD lower. The Fed may now be more cautious than the market expects, which may make it harder for GBP bulls to gain ground.

Dailyfx analysts said that the pound/dollar is currently vulnerable to selling pressure when approaching the psychological resistance level of 1.28, but bears tend not to push it too low and can focus on the support level of 1.26602. The callback support level of 1.24916 also continues to support the pound. A sustained break above 1.28 would be a very bullish sign and bring last July's peak back into focus.

Company financial report:

A number of heavyweight technology stocks will be released next week, including Tencent Holdings (00700.HK), Meituan (03690.HK), Xiaomi Group (01810.HK), China Mobile (00941.HK), PetroChina (00857) .HK), etc.; U.S. stocks such as Pinduoduo (PDD.O) and Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) will also announce results. Another highlight next week is the Nvidia GTC Conference, which will be held simultaneously at the San Jose Convention Center and online from March 18th to 21st. According to NVIDIA’s official public account, more than 77 ecosystem partners and more than 25 partner robots will be unveiled at GTC to demonstrate the future development trend of the robot industry.

Market closing arrangements

On Wednesday (March 20), Japan-Tokyo Stock Exchange will be closed for one day due to the Spring Equinox.

NYMEX New York crude oil April futures are affected by the month shift. The last transaction on the floor will be completed at 2:30 on March 21, and the final electronic transaction will be completed at 5:00 in the morning. Please pay attention to the expiry month change announcement of the trading venue to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX, so please pay more attention.

Article forwarded from: Golden Ten Data

熱點(diǎn)：數(shù)據(jù) 黃金 展望