DataSource: Footprint Analytics PhantaBear Dashboard

On December 31st, Asian superstar Jay Chou posted on Instagram showing off the PhantaBear NFT he received as a gift, and other celebrities like Edison Chen followed suit. At first, I didn't pay much attention to it, thinking it was just another wave of celebrities going all-in on the metaverse. However, the blockchain world proved me wrong when PhantaBear became the top NFT in terms of trading volume on January 9th. So I quickly did some research on PhantaBear.

PhantaBear is a collection of 10,000 NFTs generated by the collaboration between Jay Chou's clothing brand PHANTACi and Ezek. It features a bear with bright starry eyes, and owning an NFT allows you to experience the Ezek Entertainment Metaverse in advance and enjoy membership benefits of other Ezek clubs.

The floor price of PhantaBear is 3.88 ETH, which has increased by 1253.85% compared to the launch day. The lowest listed price (non-auction) is 3.075 ETH, and the highest recorded price is 148 ETH. These impressive price increases, accessible entry threshold, and unlimited potential for wealth gave me the urge to buy it.

But as a responsible investor, I checked Footprint Analytics' dashboard data and found that PhantaBear is not as stable as it seems. The number of buyers and trading volume has been decreasing since the launch, while Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) has maintained a relatively stable average during the same period.

Digging deeper into the reasons behind this, it dawned on me that the celebrity effect on PhantaBear might be losing its shine. On the other hand, BAYC has created diverse gameplay by establishing copyright ownership and launching peripheral products, which has helped it maintain its value compared to PhantaBear. Looking at PhantaBear's project description in the official roadmap, it does not highlight the unique features of this NFT. The plans to release a virtual entertainment metaverse and virtual concerts in the future can't convince me either, raising doubt in my mind.

At this point, my desire to buy PhantaBear faded away, but I couldn't give up on the research I've already done. So I carefully examined the data on Footprint Analytics' dashboard again and discovered two projects that are exceptionally active in NFT trading markets other than OpenSea. Meebits and Loot are leading the way with absolute dominance.

Looking at the timeline, the growth of Meebits and Loot started on January 11th, which coincides with the launch of LooksRare, an NFT marketplace that has recently surpassed OpenSea in trading volume.

According to trading data on LooksRare, there were repeated transactions between the same NFTs and the same addresses, meaning users were "wash trading" or manipulating the market. A large number of such inflated transactions exposed the growing NFT bubble, which is susceptible to bursting. Considering the reward mechanism on LooksRare, it's easy to see that these wash trades were aimed at obtaining mining rewards.

By this point, I realized that without prior accumulation or intrinsic value strong enough to retain users, no project can have a long-lasting overnight success. So I completely gave up on the idea of buying NFTs, especially since I can't afford well-established projects like BAYC and newcomers like World of Women have a floor price of 7.7 ETH, which is still out of reach.

Some Thoughts on Buying NFTs:

Recently popular NFTs seem to be driven by the celebrity effect and FOMO. Examples include PhantaBear and NBA Top Shot. It's undeniable that the celebrity effect is an effective way to boost NFT prices rapidly. However, if the NFT itself lacks sufficient intrinsic value, it may fade away once the hype is over.

Therefore, I would like to remind all players (investors) that the current NFT business model is still not very mature, and NFTs with real intrinsic value are relatively rare. It is advisable to investigate and understand the logic and tricks behind the project before making any purchases. Money is precious, so caution is needed. Everyone has their own prime time. Don't blindly follow the trend due to FOMO and be wary of the NFT bubble.

The above content is solely my personal opinion and is provided for reference and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. If there are any obvious misunderstandings or inaccuracies in the understanding or data, please feel free to provide feedback.

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