這將是一篇很長(zhǎng)的文章，我花了好幾天的時(shí)間進(jìn)行研究，這是一個(gè)悲觀的觀點(diǎn)，但都是基于事實(shí)。

如果您對(duì)了解更廣泛的市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不感興趣，那么就不要繼續(xù)閱讀了。

如果您在加密貨幣上投資了大量資金，那么值得一讀。

我這樣做并不是為了傳播 FUD 或影響你的決定，我發(fā)帖完全是出于熱愛(ài)，我沒(méi)有從中獲得任何好處。

如果您選擇了紅色藥丸，請(qǐng)繼續(xù)閱讀。

首先，如果我們回到 2023 年底，當(dāng)時(shí)人們普遍預(yù)測(cè)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年將降息 5-6 次，這是避免經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退所必需的，但 6 個(gè)月過(guò)去了，我們并沒(méi)有降息，也沒(méi)有明確的方向，這并不表明美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能夠控制美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。

鮑威爾和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正重點(diǎn)關(guān)注通脹和失業(yè)率，并以此證明其長(zhǎng)期加息立場(chǎng)是有效的。

通貨膨脹是一個(gè)滯后指標(biāo)，就像回顧過(guò)去看看未來(lái)會(huì)發(fā)生什么，而且勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)一旦開(kāi)始惡化就會(huì)迅速崩潰，而并不總是逐漸下降。

以下幾點(diǎn)表明美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能即將引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，

-薩姆規(guī)則，薩姆規(guī)則是一種跟蹤失業(yè)率移動(dòng)平均值的指標(biāo)，自 1948 年以來(lái)，該規(guī)則適用于每一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，目前薩姆指標(biāo)正在發(fā)出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)警告，如果失業(yè)率繼續(xù)以過(guò)去 3 個(gè)月的速度上升，就會(huì)觸發(fā)薩姆規(guī)則的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退警告。失業(yè)和失業(yè)動(dòng)態(tài)會(huì)自我加劇，如果人們失業(yè)，他們就會(huì)停止消費(fèi)，從而導(dǎo)致更多的失業(yè)。

-美國(guó)國(guó)債利息支出（不是債務(wù)，只是利息）現(xiàn)在是美國(guó)預(yù)算的第二大項(xiàng)目，它已經(jīng)超過(guò)了國(guó)防和醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)預(yù)算，預(yù)計(jì)到 2024 年將達(dá)到 8700 億美元（占 GDP 的 3.1%）

-數(shù)百家美國(guó)銀行面臨破產(chǎn)或資本不足的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

- 信用卡違約率達(dá)到12年來(lái)的最高水平。

- 上個(gè)季度，所有類型債務(wù)的拖欠轉(zhuǎn)變率都有所上升。

- 收益率曲線倒掛目前是有記錄以來(lái)最長(zhǎng)的，幾十年來(lái)，收益率曲線倒掛一直是預(yù)示經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)。

-消費(fèi)者支出和零售額下降（消費(fèi)者占美國(guó)GDP的70％）

-消費(fèi)者對(duì)非必需品的興趣下降。

-消費(fèi)者在購(gòu)物時(shí)更有可能降低價(jià)格或使用稍后付款的選項(xiàng)。

-由于看到了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，許多 G10 央行已經(jīng)開(kāi)始降低利率，許多央行在通脹仍然高于目標(biāo)價(jià)格的情況下這樣做了，而美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)仍然堅(jiān)持己見(jiàn)。

-In most major recession and economic crashes of the past, we have seen a stage of Euphoria which pre-dated it, this is exactly the same conditions we have seen in Crypto, S&P 500 and many other stocks over the last year.

-In many stock market crashes of the past we have seen similar conditions to what we see today with Nvidia. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 gains are all being supported by Nvidia, yes AI is booming but this also shows risk, firstly it shows extreme greed(FOMO), Secondly it shows investors are not finding value(diversity) in other stocks, this is a huge warning sign for the overall market.

There are many other warning signs, these are just a few that need to be noted.

These signs may take months to materialize but if they do it will be terrible for crypto, also note the FED might take drastic steps if these do materialize (lower interest rates to late, pump stimulus into the economy) this can lead to a last gasp Euphoric Bull phase.

If Unemployment starts to break down and we see increased numbers in the next 1-2 months i would advise positioning yourself for the worst case scenario, expect the best but prepare for the worst.

Cash out some/most of your crypto or stocks if this happens, ask yourself is the possible 5-10% extra you could make worth the risk of a massive shock( Im assuming most high leverage traders didnt make it this far, so this applies mostly to Spot holders)

I dont presume to know more than the FED, i research and listen to analysts i trust, not paid analysts who are employed to ONLY be bullish.

Now, more than ever, it will be important to monitor the US economic data, especially the labour market, dont ignore or be stubborn if this shows signs of breaking down further.

This is not anti crypto or FUD, i post to try help people who dont understand market risks.

Many new traders dont see how Crypto and the global economy is linked but it is, if we see a recession or crash then crypto prices will be hit hard, it will be a firesale.

The FED has stood by its policy for to long, they will need to act fast and correctly in the coming months, it could already be to late(Policy changes take a year or more to have an effect)

The market will be very sensitive to data in the coming months, especially Unemployment and Inflation, before you do anything, before you enter any trade, monitor the news ahead for the week.(Forexfactory.com)

It sucks but the price of Crypto is now firmly in the hands of the FED and the policy decisions they make in the next 3 months, dont be naive and think otherwise.

It took me a long time to research and write this post, if you made it this far(and found this helpful) a like is always appreciated.

Thanks for reading.

Peace.

熱點(diǎn)：加密貨幣 加密 經(jīng)濟(jì) 美國(guó)