• Highstreet ($HIGH) 的代幣價(jià)格在過去一周大幅下跌。$HIGH 在 3 月 20 日之后經(jīng)歷了強(qiáng)勁的牛市。不到三個月的時(shí)間里，$HIGH 的價(jià)格從 1.7 美元上漲至 9.8 美元的高位，隨后在短短五天內(nèi)下跌 70% 至 2.8 美元。Highstreet 開發(fā)人員調(diào)查了最近的大幅下跌，并得出結(jié)論，這是由惡意攻擊導(dǎo)致 2000 萬個代幣被出售造成的。

• Filecoin 網(wǎng)絡(luò) ($FIL) 于 2017 年推出，旨在激勵全球計(jì)算機(jī)運(yùn)營商網(wǎng)絡(luò)提供文件共享和存儲服務(wù)。最近關(guān)于 DePIN 創(chuàng)新的討論引起了市場對該項(xiàng)目的興趣，因?yàn)樾畔⒋鎯κ?DePIN 創(chuàng)新的關(guān)鍵組成部分。對 $FIL 的高需求導(dǎo)致上周五 5 小時(shí)內(nèi)上漲了 11%。然而，在拋售之后，漲勢迅速逆轉(zhuǎn)。

• 由于美國 CPI 通脹低于預(yù)期，以及通過拍賣銷毀了 600 多萬個 INJ 代幣，Injective ($INJ) 的價(jià)格在過去 24 小時(shí)內(nèi)上漲了 22% 以上。價(jià)格的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)引起了廣泛關(guān)注，我們的交易臺上周看到 Convert 上 $INJ 的交易量翻了一番。

整體市場

• 上圖顯示了過去四個月 BTC 的價(jià)格走勢。

• 上周五，受美國非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)意外強(qiáng)勁影響，比特幣價(jià)格大幅下跌。強(qiáng)勁的非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)表明，在如此強(qiáng)勁的勞動力市場下，美聯(lián)儲沒有理由降息。高于預(yù)期的平均時(shí)薪增長給生產(chǎn)端帶來更大壓力，暗示勞動力成本上升導(dǎo)致通脹粘性加劇。

• BTC 在前一周期高點(diǎn) 69,000 美元處獲得支撐。周末，流動性減少，比特幣回升至 70,000 美元。

• 本周，我們將發(fā)布 CPI 數(shù)據(jù)，周三還將發(fā)布 FOMC 公告。周二，我們的交易臺看到了一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)釋放，這導(dǎo)致山寨幣出現(xiàn)拋售。BTC 跌破 69,000 美元的支撐位，并在需求出現(xiàn)之前拋售至 66,000 美元。這種規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的行為可能是一種對沖策略，以避免周三可能出現(xiàn)的高 CPI 數(shù)據(jù)和美聯(lián)儲的鷹派立場。

• 美國CPI數(shù)據(jù)低于預(yù)期，導(dǎo)致美元下跌，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)上漲。消息公布后，BTC飆升逾2%，早盤突破6.9萬美元支撐位。

• 然而，在聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會新聞發(fā)布會之后，英鎊兌美元跌至所有漲幅，因?yàn)槊缆?lián)儲主席鮑威爾并未提供任何有關(guān)可能降息的具體信息，并強(qiáng)調(diào)美聯(lián)儲最好等待通貨緊縮趨勢更加明朗，而不是基于單一的良好數(shù)據(jù)就做出決定。

• Without another catalyst in the near term, our desk believes the Bitcoin price will remain below $71k to $73k (the green bar on the chart). In the longer term, we believe Bitcoin's upward trend will continue, with the price breaking above the green bar and reaching $85k before the US presidential election.

Macro at a glance

• Last Thursday (24-06-06)

  • The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the first time in five years, setting the rate at 3.75%. According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, this rate cut will most likely mark the beginning of rate-cutting progress. She did, however, emphasise that future rate cuts will be contingent on inflationary pressures. The announcement boosted the European stock market.

  • US initial jobless claims increased to 229k from 221k last week, exceeding the estimated 220k. The rise in initial jobless claims suggests that the tightening situation in the US labour market is improving.

• Last Friday (24-06-07)

  • US nonfarm payrolls increased by 272k in May, far exceeding the expected 182k and April's 165k. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month on month. The growth rate exceeded the estimated 0.3% and April's 0.2%. The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll and faster growth in average hourly earnings indicate a strong US labour market, with inflation pressure remaining high as labour costs continue to rise.

  • However, the US unemployment rate increased to 4.0%, up from 3.9% last month.

  • The strong hourly earnings growth boosted the US dollar index (DXY) to 105, while all risk assets experienced some selloff pressure as the market anticipated a more hawkish Federal Reserve rate cut decision later this year.

• On Wednesday (24-06-12)

  • The US CPI showed signs of softening in May. The monthly CPI was unchanged, lower than the estimated 0.1% and 0.3% in April. The annualised CPI increase is 3.3%, lower than the estimated 3.4% and April's 3.4%. Core CPI also came in lower than expected, with a monthly change of 0.2% and an annualised change of 3.4%. The US dollar fell sharply from 105.03 to 104.5, while Bitcoin rose from $68,005 to $69,500 following the news.

  • The Federal Reserve announced that the interest rate will remain at 5.50%, unchanged. The dot plot indicates that FOMC members expect only one rate cut this year, not three as shown in March. Chair Powell emphasised that the Federal Reserve needs more data to show a downward trend in inflation before lowering rates. The Fed would wait a few months to see if the trend of cooling inflation continues before considering a looser policy.

  • The US dollar recovered its losses following the cooling CPI news, while Bitcoin lost all of its gains and traded below $68,000 before the US market closed.

Convert Portal Volume Change

• The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.

• 本周，大盤遭遇拋售，比特幣未能突破 7.2 萬美元大關(guān)。我們的轉(zhuǎn)換發(fā)現(xiàn)，存儲區(qū)的交易量增幅最大。

• 上周，我們的團(tuán)隊(duì)注意到對 Filecoin（$FIL）的需求很高，這成為存儲區(qū)交易量變化的主要驅(qū)動因素。

• 上周，Launchpad 區(qū)域的交易量在 Convert 上增長了 9.7%。Injective ($INJ) 和 Fetch.ai ($FET) 是推動該區(qū)域交易量增長的兩種代幣。

• 同期，Layer 1/Layer 2 區(qū)域的交易量下降了 16.8%。繼前一周對 ETH 的需求強(qiáng)勁之后，我們的交易臺觀察到過去七天對 ETH 的需求出現(xiàn)回撤，這是該區(qū)域交易量下降的主要原因。

為何進(jìn)行場外交易？

幣安為客戶提供多種方式進(jìn)行場外交易，包括聊天溝通渠道和幣安場外交易平臺（https://www.binance.com/en/otc），用于手動報(bào)價(jià)、算法訂單或通過幣安??轉(zhuǎn)換和大宗交易平臺（https://www.binance.com/en/convert）和幣安轉(zhuǎn)換場外交易 API 進(jìn)行自動報(bào)價(jià)。

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