事實(shí)證明，減半對(duì)比特幣來(lái)說(shuō)是一次“拋售新聞”事件，而且由于利率持續(xù)存在不確定性，新一輪反彈可能需要一段時(shí)間。

比特幣減半已經(jīng)過(guò)去兩周了，至少在短期內(nèi)，這一罕見(jiàn)事件并沒(méi)有帶來(lái)多頭所希望的價(jià)格爆炸式增長(zhǎng)。

你可能會(huì)說(shuō)，其中很多事情都超出了 BTC 的控制范圍。中東緊張局勢(shì)加劇導(dǎo)致加密貨幣市場(chǎng)突然急劇下跌。

我們?cè)?4 月 19 日就看到了這一點(diǎn)，當(dāng)時(shí)以色列對(duì)伊朗領(lǐng)土發(fā)動(dòng)襲擊的消息傳出后，比特幣跌破 60,000 美元。

盡管價(jià)格迅速回升，但這場(chǎng)日益復(fù)雜的沖突的進(jìn)一步動(dòng)亂或升級(jí)可能會(huì)帶來(lái)進(jìn)一步的阻力。

雖然 60,000 美元已被證明是 BTC 的一個(gè)重要心理門檻，但決心在 5 月 1 日受到了嚴(yán)峻考驗(yàn)，當(dāng)時(shí)價(jià)格跌至 56,555 美元的低點(diǎn)。

以下是

自減半以來(lái)我們學(xué)到的五件事，可以幫助我們規(guī)劃接下來(lái)會(huì)發(fā)生什么。

4 月份比特幣價(jià)格 |資料來(lái)源：CoinGecko

幾周來(lái)，加密貨幣恐懼和貪婪指數(shù)一直在閃爍著“貪婪”或“極度貪婪”的分?jǐn)?shù)，但交易者在五月初得到了發(fā)人深省的現(xiàn)實(shí)檢驗(yàn)。

為什么？因?yàn)?月份BTC大幅下跌。在創(chuàng)下歷史新高 71,329.30 美元后，價(jià)格暴跌 14.95%，月收盤價(jià)為 59,228.70 美元。

盡管目前價(jià)值已成功恢復(fù)，但人們?nèi)詫?duì)未來(lái)持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。這是比特幣在減半前首次創(chuàng)下歷史新高。

一些分析師認(rèn)為，這可能是當(dāng)前牛市周期中最好的情況，而另一些分析師則認(rèn)為，在反彈恢復(fù)之前可能需要很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的等待。

“Left Curve”是一篇關(guān)于為什么你對(duì) #crypto 不夠樂(lè)觀的文章。是時(shí)候閉上眼睛了，BTFD！ https://t.co/0pQyOjZhPS pic.twitter.com/r9QUiGYZTG

— 亞瑟·海耶斯 (@CryptoHayes) 2024 年 4 月 23 日

2. 對(duì)比特幣前景的預(yù)測(cè)好壞參半

BitMEX 前創(chuàng)始人 Arthur Hayes 聲稱他一直看到這種情況的發(fā)生，一系列完美的事件拖累了比特幣的下跌：

“美國(guó)納稅季、對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將采取的行動(dòng)的驚愕、比特幣減半拋售的新聞事件以及美國(guó)比特幣 ETF 管理資產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)放緩在過(guò)去兩周結(jié)合在一起，產(chǎn)生了急需的市場(chǎng)清理?！?/p>

阿瑟·海耶斯

盡管如此，他確實(shí)相信比特幣現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)觸及局部低點(diǎn)，“直到 8 月份，價(jià)格將在 60,000 美元到 70,000 美元之間波動(dòng)”。

盡管渣打銀行加倍預(yù)測(cè) BTC 到今年年底將達(dá)到 150,000 美元，但該銀行警告稱，比特幣價(jià)格可能進(jìn)一步跌至 50,000 美元。

Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has also struck a cautious tone. In a note shared with crypto.news, he said “sticky inflation appears connected to speculative excesses in Bitcoin and equity prices” — and there may be some time yet before the Federal Reserve starts easing interest rates. He wrote:

“If the S&P 500 is starting to retrace the almost straight up rally from the October low, the highly volatile crypto might su?er. Our view is the Fed is unlikely to ease until beta tells it to by de?ating, with headwinds for all risks assets and potential tailwinds for gold.”

Mike McGlone

Bitcoin ETF inflows since their launch in January | Source: SoSo Value 3. Times are tough for Bitcoin ETFs

After initial euphoria following their approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in January, appetite for exchange-traded funds based on Bitcoin’s spot price looks like it’s starting to cool.

Data from SoSo Value shows there were record outflows of $563 million from BTC ETFs on May 1 — with a six-day streak in the red snapped on May 3, when there were total inflows of $378 million. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart said at the time that “inflows and outflows are part of the norm in the life of an ETF.”

Nonetheless, despite lofty predictions that the arrival of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong would deliver trading volumes that far exceeded the debut on Wall Street, it was a disappointing launch, to say the least.

Just $8.5 million in trading volumes were recorded across spot Bitcoin ETFs on day one — 98.6% less than the $628 million seen when they arrived in the U.S. But JAN3 CEO Samson Mow believes exchange-traded funds in Asia just need time to find their feet:

#Bitcoin ETFs in HK are going to be big. Maybe not on day 1 or 2, but the long term implications are massive. There is really nothing else for Chinese investors to put their money into at this time. https://t.co/hOSCa7siid

— Samson Mow (@Excellion) April 29, 2024

4. A nervous wait for miners

CryptoQuant recently told crypto.news that Bitcoin miners could face significant challenges unless prices recover in the coming weeks — with higher electricity costs and permanently lower block rewards leaving the industry feeling the pinch. Head of research Julio Moreno said:

“[The market is] more likely to see a miner capitulation if prices don’t recover significantly during the summer. Especially with the hashprice (average miner revenue per hash) making new lows.”

Julio Moreno

But there’s a problem: trading volumes across the board tend to decline during the summer months — with Bitcoin typically performing below average between June and September.

#Bitcoin Emerges pic.twitter.com/vNEIgeH2TU

— Michael Saylor? (@saylor) May 4, 2024

5. Keep an eye on these two

Undeterred, some executives are continuing to get their hands on as much Bitcoin as they can.

MicroStrategy 目前擁有 214,400 BTC，平均價(jià)格為每枚 35,180 美元。鑒于撰寫本文時(shí)比特幣的交易價(jià)格為 63,600 美元，Michael Saylor 的大賭注意味著該公司坐擁 81 億美元的賬面利潤(rùn)。

與此同時(shí)，由 Twitter 前首席執(zhí)行官杰克·多西 (Jack Dorsey) 領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的 Block 現(xiàn)在已開(kāi)始將其毛利潤(rùn)的很大一部分用于購(gòu)買額外的 BTC。

無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)比特幣下一步將走向何方，但看起來(lái)有理由保持樂(lè)觀。

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