• Wormhole ($W) 是 Wormhole 平臺(tái)的原生代幣，Wormhole 平臺(tái)是一種多鏈協(xié)議，可以在區(qū)塊鏈之間傳輸資產(chǎn)和數(shù)據(jù)。由于跨鏈資產(chǎn)需求旺盛，Wormhole ($W) 上周價(jià)格上漲 19.9%。

• Ether.fi ($ETHFI) 周六需求強(qiáng)勁，與 ETH 強(qiáng)勁反彈同時(shí)發(fā)生。周末 36 小時(shí)內(nèi) ETHFI 價(jià)格上漲超過(guò) 45%。然而，周一亞洲市場(chǎng)開(kāi)盤(pán)后，大部分漲幅被逆轉(zhuǎn)。

• Arweave（$AR）是一個(gè)去中心化存儲(chǔ)網(wǎng)絡(luò)，專(zhuān)注于無(wú)限期地存儲(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)。它作為一個(gè)集體擁有的硬盤(pán)驅(qū)動(dòng)器，托管“permaweb”——一個(gè)永久的、去中心化的網(wǎng)絡(luò)。它還確保子孫后代的數(shù)據(jù)完整性和可訪問(wèn)性，引領(lǐng)數(shù)字保存的范式轉(zhuǎn)變。當(dāng) BTC 周三跌破 6 萬(wàn)美元時(shí)，AR 價(jià)格下跌了 18% 以上，在過(guò)去 7 天內(nèi)回報(bào)了 -16.7%。

• Optimism ($OP) 是以太坊第 2 層擴(kuò)容解決方案，最近需求強(qiáng)勁，在過(guò)去 24 小時(shí)內(nèi)增長(zhǎng)了 9% 以上。根據(jù) Unchained crypto 周二發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告，最大的加密貨幣風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資基金之一 A16z 購(gòu)買(mǎi)了 9000 萬(wàn)美元的 OP 代幣。據(jù)消息人士透露，這家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資公司的投資有兩年的歸屬期。

整體市場(chǎng)

• 上圖顯示了過(guò)去兩個(gè)月BTC的價(jià)格走勢(shì)。

• 正如我們?cè)谥暗奈恼轮杏懻摰哪菢樱?0,000 美元 - 61,000 美元范圍是一個(gè)強(qiáng)勁的需求區(qū)域，在 BTC 價(jià)格高于該區(qū)域后，該區(qū)域經(jīng)過(guò)了多次測(cè)試。然而，近期由于地緣政治沖突導(dǎo)致拋售，該區(qū)間的購(gòu)買(mǎi)力下降，比特幣跌破該水平。

• 正如我們 4 月 17 日的報(bào)告所述，如果 BTC 跌破 60k/61k 支撐區(qū)間，下一個(gè)強(qiáng)支撐區(qū)間將是 56k/57k 美元。它也是 350 日移動(dòng)平均線。在硅谷銀行倒閉期間，該移動(dòng)平均線充當(dāng)了堅(jiān)實(shí)的支撐位。

• BTC價(jià)格自4月份以來(lái)就形成了熊旗，上方多次試探均被拒絕。 56,000 美元/57,000 美元的支撐位也在較低趨勢(shì)線附近。如果比特幣從此處恢復(fù)，這并不意味著價(jià)格將逆轉(zhuǎn)并回到歷史高位。除非 BTC 價(jià)格突破下行通道，否則我們認(rèn)為 BTC 勢(shì)頭將繼續(xù)在下行通道內(nèi)交易。

• 如果 BTC 價(jià)格跌破下行通道，下一個(gè)強(qiáng)支撐位將是 51,000/52,000 美元區(qū)間，如圖所示。

期權(quán)市場(chǎng)

• 上表顯示了 BTC 和 ETH 期權(quán)的 25-delta 偏度。

• 如上表所示，BTC 和 ETH 期權(quán)對(duì)于短期和中期期限都具有極大的負(fù)偏差。負(fù)偏度表明期權(quán)交易者更有可能購(gòu)買(mǎi)看跌期權(quán)而不是看漲期權(quán)。

• The most recent one with such negative skews occurred on April 16, when the Middle East's geopolitical conflicts escalated. BTC recovered the majority of its losses over the next few days, but then continued to decline.

• This time, our desk noticed a more significant skew shift to the negative side than on April 16. One of the reasons could be the FOMC meeting held this Wednesday. Although the market expected the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, it is more important to know whether the Fed will raise interest rates again given the sticky inflation backdrop.

• Following the FOMC meeting today, Fed Chairman Powell indicated that no interest rate hike is being considered, but he did not provide any indication of when the interest rate cut will occur. The slowdown in the pace of balance-sheet reduction benefited the market, but the postponed rate-cut action cast a cloud over investors' heads.

• Our desk believes that the negatively skewed BTC and ETH options will move back towards the zero line in the next few days, but they may remain negative for an extended period if the downward momentum on the BTC price continues.

Macro at a glance

• Last Thursday (24-04-25)

  • The US GDP growth rate was 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, lower than the expected 2.5%. The lower-than-expected GDP growth rate raised market concerns about the potential failure of the Federal Reserve's proposed soft landing.

  • US initial jobless claims fell further last week, from 212k to 207k, indicating that the US labour market remains tight.

  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that US economic growth was likely stronger than the weaker-than-expected market data, and inflation continued to rise despite the Q1 flare-up.

  • The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.1%, unchanged, and continued its bond purchase. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that if data confirms the BOJ's price view, it will raise interest rates, but he did not give clues on when the rate hike will start.

• Last Friday (24-04-26)

  • The US PCE price index rose 2.7% year on year in March, exceeding the estimated 2.6% and February's 2.5%. The core PCE price index rose 2.8% on an annual basis in March, exceeding the expected 2.6% and remaining consistent with February's 2.8%. The higher-than-expected PCE price index demonstrated that inflation is stickier than the market expected, potentially postponing the Federal Reserve's rate-cut decision timeline.

• On Tuesday (24-04-30)

  • In April, the Eurozone's CPI growth rate was 2.4% year on year, which was consistent with economist forecasts. The core CPI growth rate was 2.7%, slightly higher than the expected 2.6% but lower than March's 2.9%. Unlike the data in the United States, the Eurozone's CPI continued to fall, drawing closer to the ECB's 2% inflation target. According to the data, the ECB is more likely to cut interest rates for the first time this cycle at its June meeting.

  • 4月份美國(guó)CB消費(fèi)者信心為97.0，顯著低于預(yù)期的104.0和3月份的103.1。消費(fèi)者信心差于預(yù)期表明4月份消費(fèi)者支出可能放緩，從而緩解通脹上行壓力。

• 星期三 (24-05-01)

  • 美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)維持利率在5.50%不變。 FOMC 聲明指出，委員會(huì) 2% 的通脹目標(biāo)缺乏進(jìn)展。與此同時(shí)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將從 6 月份開(kāi)始將資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表削減額從 650 億美元減少到 250 億美元。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾表示，加息不太可能是央行的下一步舉措。這一鴿派評(píng)論使所有三個(gè)指數(shù)上漲超過(guò) 1%，比特幣從 5.74 萬(wàn)美元上漲至 5.93 萬(wàn)美元。然而，所有漲幅在美國(guó)交易時(shí)段結(jié)束前全部逆轉(zhuǎn)。美國(guó)市場(chǎng)收盤(pán)時(shí)，比特幣交易價(jià)格為 57,000 美元。

轉(zhuǎn)換門(mén)戶(hù)體積變化

• 上表按區(qū)域顯示了我們的 Convert Portal 上的交易量變化。

• 本周，Monitoring 區(qū)域的交易量增長(zhǎng)了 3.4%，而 Fan 代幣區(qū)域的 Convert 交易量下降了 8.2%。

• 在過(guò)去 7 天里，Loom Network ($LOOM) 和 aelf ($ELF) 對(duì)監(jiān)控區(qū)域的交易量增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)最大。

• BNB Chain 區(qū)域的 Convert 交易量下降了 5.8%。盡管如此，該區(qū)域?qū)追N代幣的需求量很大。 BNB Chain 區(qū)域的代幣中，Polkastarter ($POLS) 和 COMBO ($COMBO) 的交易需求增幅最高。

• 同期，粉絲令牌區(qū)域的交易量下降了 8.2%。巴塞羅那足球俱樂(lè)部球迷代幣 ($BAR) 和波爾圖足球俱樂(lè)部 ($PORTO) 是該區(qū)域最受歡迎的兩種代幣。對(duì)曼城球迷代幣（$CITY）的需求下降幅度最大。

為什么進(jìn)行場(chǎng)外交易？

幣安為客戶(hù)提供多種方式進(jìn)行場(chǎng)外交易，包括聊天溝通渠道和幣安場(chǎng)外交易平臺(tái) (https://www.binance.com/en/otc)，用于手動(dòng)報(bào)價(jià)、算法訂單或通過(guò) Binance Convert 自動(dòng)報(bào)價(jià)大宗交易平臺(tái) (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) 和 Binance Convert OTC API。

電子郵件：

加入我們的

熱點(diǎn)：交易