What will happen next? Will the halving definitely lead to an increase?

Can ETFs continue to support the continuous increase? The previous breakthrough to 73,700 triggered a large selling pressure of profit selling, especially GBTC, which went down after an increase of less than 5,000U. Obviously, there is not enough funds and the selling pressure is very large. What if it breaks through 73,700 this time? The overall environment and liquidity have not changed fundamentally. And now it is getting closer and closer to a rate cut. So where does the money to continue to support the big pull come from?

Here are a few points to note:

1. Liquidity problem: In 24 hours, only the US time zone, that is, the period from 21:30 to 6:00 the next day in Beijing time, has good liquidity. The liquidity is not good at other times. It is even worse on weekends. Don't forget that the two major market crashes from 73,700 to 60,700 occurred during the daytime in Beijing time. So pay special attention

2. Funds in suspected risk markets may withdraw. Why do you say that? You can observe from mid-to-late March to now. Gold, silver, and commodities are all rising, and gold has even reached a new high. But S&P, Nvidia, and BTC have been fluctuating since they hit a new high in mid-March

You can say that the new high of gold is due to geopolitics and war, but it is also possible that it is due to the expected interest rate cut. Of course, it is unlikely to cut interest rates in May now, and the probability of June is getting lower, that is, July. It is only April now, and it is still early. But this behavior is suspected to be a withdrawal of funds. Q3 may be risky

Of course, some friends also said, you see that gold rose last night, US stocks fell, and BTC rose. This is BTC following gold. I can't help but ask, gold is a global consensus safe-haven asset, how many people think BTC is a safe-haven asset? How many

3. Continue to pay attention to the inflow and outflow of ETFs, especially GBTC, as well as the inflow and outflow of stablecoins. In fact, it is more about stablecoins

(The overall ETF data in the past half month is not optimistic. Either there is a net outflow, or there is a barely net increase, and there is no significant net increase)

What I want to say is that now that BTC has returned to 71,000, has the altcoin returned to the same period price? No! This is the weirdest point

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