以色列和伊朗之間的緊張局勢是幾天前油價突破90美元/桶的直接觸發(fā)因素，但油價上漲實際上有更深層次的根源——全球供應沖擊加劇了人們對大宗商品驅(qū)動的通脹卷土重來的擔憂。

墨西哥近期削減原油出口，加劇了全球原油供應緊張，促使全球最大生產(chǎn)國美國的煉油廠增加國內(nèi)供應。與此同時，美國的制裁導致俄羅斯貨物滯留在海上，委內(nèi)瑞拉的供應可能是下一個。胡塞叛軍仍在紅海襲擊過往的油輪，導致原油運輸延誤。此外，盡管局勢動蕩，歐佩克及其盟友仍堅持減產(chǎn)。

所有這些因素結(jié)合在一起造成了供應中斷，令交易商措手不及。隨著美國夏季駕車季節(jié)的臨近，油價漲幅可能進一步擴大，有可能推動全球基準布倫特原油近兩年來首次升至每桶 100 美元。這將加劇通脹擔憂，給美國總統(tǒng)喬·拜登的連任前景蒙上陰影，并使央行降息的道路變得復雜化。

Energy Aspects Ltd. 創(chuàng)始人兼研究主管阿姆麗塔·森 (Amrita Sen) 在接受采訪時表示，對于油價而言，“目前更大的推動因素是供應面”。 “我們看到了很多供應疲軟的跡象，但全球總體需求良好?！?/p>

供應風險持續(xù)加大

由于總統(tǒng)安德烈斯·曼努埃爾·洛佩茲·奧夫拉多爾試圖兌現(xiàn)讓該國擺脫對昂貴燃料進口的承諾，美洲主要供應國墨西哥的石油運輸量上個月下降了 35%，至 2019 年以來的最低水平。

據(jù)彭博社上周報道，由于國有石油公司墨西哥國家石油公司取消了與外國煉油廠的一些供應合同，該國所謂的含硫原油的出口可能會進一步萎縮。許多煉油廠都是為了加工這種重質(zhì)、稠密的原油而設計的。

上周晚些時候，洛佩茲·奧夫拉多爾駁斥了有關(guān)墨西哥國家石油公司削減原油出口的報道，稱其“不屬實”。墨西哥國家石油公司將根據(jù)國內(nèi)煉油能力的變化調(diào)整出口。此外，多斯博卡斯煉油廠計劃于四月開始生產(chǎn)柴油。

盡管如此，該傳聞仍引起全球石油市場的軒然大波?；鹦腔旌显褪且环N來自美國墨西哥灣沿岸的中密度含硫原油，最近幾天的交易價格一直高于 WTI 原油?；鹦窃偷慕灰變r格通常低于 WTI 原油。上周四，布倫特原油觸及每桶90美元，為去年10月以來的最高水平。摩根大通表示，到8月或9月，布倫特原油價格可能達到每桶100美元。

加拿大墨西哥灣沿岸冷湖原油的交易價格相對于 WTI 原油的折扣是近一年來的最小水平。作為中東中質(zhì)高硫原油的主要基??準的阿曼和迪拜期貨合約也有所上漲。

The reduction in Mexican crude supplies follows supply disruptions both large and small in the U.S. U.S. crude production and inventories typically rise in January, but severe cold weather led to the opposite, with U.S. crude inventories below seasonal averages until the end of March.

Oil output from Mexico, the United States, Qatar and Iraq, which has pledged to curb output to make up for missed commitments to OPEC+, fell by a combined more than 1 million barrels per day in March, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Further tightening supply, OPEC+ members cut shipments of the medium-sour oil Upper Zakum by 41% in March from last year’s average, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler. The UAE is shifting more of this crude to its own refineries, traders said. While the production cuts were expected and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is offering buyers another crude as an alternative, the drop in Upper Zakum exports amid widespread OPEC+ cuts has led to higher prices for the region’s crude.

Meanwhile, European crude markets were under pressure from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, which diverted millions of barrels of crude from Africa, delaying some supplies for weeks. The disruption of a key North Sea pipeline, unrest in Libya and damage to a pipeline in South Sudan also contributed to the rise in prices. In addition, U.S. sanctions have prevented Russia from using some tankers that were previously used to deliver oil to buyers such as India.

Supply tightness is likely to intensify further in the coming weeks as the Biden administration is likely to reimpose sanctions this month as Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has shown no signs of following through on his promise to hold free and fair elections.

"Tight supplies of sour crude and the prospect of a summer driving season in the U.S. suggest a turning point is coming in the market," said Samantha Hartke, an analyst at analytics firm Sparta Commodities.

This is in stark contrast to a few months ago, when oil prices fell to their lowest in months as U.S. crude production climbed and Russian seaborne crude exports surged despite Western sanctions, leading the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to predict that global crude oil inventories would remain unchanged this quarter. But now, the agency expects inventories to fall by 900,000 barrels per day, equivalent to Oman's daily production.

Global crude oil inventories may fall in the second quarter for the first time since 2021

Oil prices may hit $100 again

The tightening of global crude oil supply comes as demand is rising. U.S. refiners are preparing to increase fuel production in the summer, when millions of Americans travel and gasoline consumption peaks. Gasoline inventories are tightening on the densely populated East Coast, and manufacturing activity in the United States and China is also signaling increased fuel use. In Asia, refining margins are about 50% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating strong demand.

Rising crude prices have disrupted the Biden administration's plans to replenish the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. SPR stockpile has experienced an unprecedented depletion, falling to a 40-year low. High energy prices are also a political risk for Biden. Higher oil prices have the potential to push retail gasoline prices to the critical psychological level of $4 per gallon, which currently averages $3.60 per gallon nationwide. This has heightened concerns that commodities will reverse the recent slowdown in consumer price (CPI) gains.

Oil prices helped ease U.S. inflation late last year, but are now pushing it back up. March CPI data, to be released on Wednesday, may prove this again. The headline CPI is expected to accelerate year-on-year, while the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to fall. The Bloomberg Index of major commodities has reached its highest level since November last year.

Vikas Dwivedi, global oil and gas strategist at Macquarie Group, said that the surge in crude oil prices could eventually force OPEC+ to reduce some of its production cuts. JPMorgan said that a sharp rise in oil prices above $90 could lead to global demand destruction and ultimately a fall in oil prices. But so far, this has not happened.

“There’s no question that the crude oil market is a fundamentally solid market,” Bob McNally, founder of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House adviser, said in an interview. “I think $100 a barrel is entirely possible, it just requires more pricing in of real geopolitical risks.”

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data

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