對美國非農(nóng)數(shù)據(jù)的質(zhì)疑：市場熱議背后的荒謬與邏輯錯誤

似乎一夜之間所有財經(jīng)媒體都開始關(guān)注美國非農(nóng)數(shù)據(jù)。你不覺得這很有趣嗎？每個股票投資者都變成了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家。于是，又是同樣的節(jié)奏。我們大樓里的保安和清潔女工已經(jīng)開始討論美國非農(nóng)數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期、美國經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁、美聯(lián)儲不會降息的邏輯。每當(dāng)節(jié)奏對了，每當(dāng)你發(fā)現(xiàn)身邊所有相關(guān)的和不相關(guān)的人都開始討論一件事情時，我就知道他在這件事情上錯了，而且一定錯得離譜

女士們先生們，如果您是白宮，您是世界公認(rèn)的預(yù)期管理最好的美聯(lián)儲，那么今天一個普通的中國網(wǎng)友，一個每天靠哭喊吸引眼球的基金博主，一個沒學(xué)過一天CFA的金融菜鳥，一個連華爾街的咖啡機(jī)能沖多少盎司咖啡都不知道的中國人，都開始清晰地分享自己的觀點。在分析你的邏輯時，只有一種可能，那就是這個邏輯推導(dǎo)出來的結(jié)果是你想讓他們相信的，但至于這個結(jié)果是否是事實，只有路西法知道。但其實我們說，稍微專業(yè)一點的人，應(yīng)該早就開始懷疑他了吧？他被懷疑至少一年半了。美國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)與實際情況的邏輯矛盾，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)政策與經(jīng)濟(jì)原則的全方位心理混亂，我們不得不從一開始的反思和沉默，然后開始竊竊私語并確認(rèn)彼此。后來皇帝的新裝，你看他演戲，現(xiàn)在基本上已經(jīng)完全回歸理性了。你們經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)大，靠發(fā)債怎么活？你的就業(yè)真好，怎么到處都是乞丐？運(yùn)營成本如此之高，實體經(jīng)濟(jì)如何發(fā)展？如果你的制造業(yè)真的回歸了，通脹怎么可能不下來呢？蘇格拉底無法解釋。

What is the true scientific spirit? It means that you eliminate all the impossibilities and the remaining impossibilities must be the truth. There are no unexplainable supernatural events in this world. If there is, it must be because a person is unwilling to believe it. There is nothing wrong with the principles of economics. It is you Americans who are confused. If you must say that there is nothing wrong with your non-farm data, then there is only one possibility, that is, your non-farm employment data does not reflect the strong momentum of your economic development. Your non-farm employment reflects that Americans who are still willing and able to find jobs are trying their best to work and work hard to cope with the rising prices that you can't control. However, your inflation is not something that can be dealt with by raising interest rates. Your inflation is caused by the global industrial chain being split by you. He is still unwilling to admit this. Look at his non-farm employment data, there were 300,000 new jobs, of which healthcare accounted for 70,000 4/1, government departments accounted for 70,000 4/1, leisure and hotels accounted for 50,000, and construction accounted for 40,000. What about your manufacturing industry?Where is your technology? What have you added?

Let's put it in a more unpleasant way, in a way that Chinese people can understand. The American people are forced to work hard, and they have started to take the civil service exam, drive Didi to deliver food, and work as caregivers. My economy is so hot, and then you say that since everyone is working so hard, I plan not to cut interest rates, and raise interest rates to add a code to everyone? Isn't that what you mean? Right? I can't see the future of his economy. I only see that his purpose is not to cut interest rates, and an American government that has abandoned the interests of its own people.

熱點：數(shù)據(jù) 美國