比特幣價格暴跌至 60,800 美元：最糟糕的時期已經(jīng)過去了嗎？專家參與

時間：2024-03-20|瀏覽：360

<a title='注冊并實名送比特幣' target='_blank' class='f_a'>比特幣</a>價格暴跌至60800美元最糟糕的時期已經(jīng)過去了嗎專家參與

比特幣經(jīng)歷了從 3 月 14 日超過 73,600 美元的高點急劇下跌至今天低于 60,800 美元的低點，價值損失了 -17%。

這種大幅下跌引發(fā)了社交媒體平臺上的一系列活動，尤其是 X（以前稱為 Twitter），加密貨幣專家一直在熱情討論這種低迷背后的潛在原因，并猜測世界領(lǐng)先加密貨幣的未來。

解讀比特幣崩盤：專家觀點

Alex Krüger 是宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)和加密領(lǐng)域受人尊敬的人物，他很快就確定了導(dǎo)致比特幣價格暴跌的主要因素。

Krüger 表示，此次暴跌可歸因于幾個關(guān)鍵因素：市場杠桿率過高、以太坊因 ETF 投機而對整體市場情緒產(chǎn)生負面影響、比特幣 ETF 流入量顯著減少，以及圍繞 Solana memecoin 的非理性繁榮。被輕蔑地稱為“垃圾幣狂熱”。

崩潰原因（按重要性排序）

（對于那些有需要的人）

— 亞歷克斯·克魯格 (@krugermacro) 2024 年 3 月 20 日

加密貨幣領(lǐng)域另一個有影響力的聲音 WhalePanda 指出 ETF 資金流出速度驚人，昨天流出市場的資金達到創(chuàng)紀錄的 3.26 億美元。

這一走勢對 GBTC 尤其不利，該公司的資金外流達 4.435 億美元。

相比之下，貝萊德的資金流入僅為 7520 萬美元，創(chuàng)下迄今為止的第二低水平。

此外，富達 (Fidelity) 的資金流入僅為 3,960 萬美元。

“沒什么好說的，這對價格不利，我們現(xiàn)在可能會看到更低的價格，因為這個消息也會影響市場情緒。

讓我們看看明天的流量是多少。

積極的事情是，距離減半還有大約 30 天，GBTC 正在受到影響，”他評論道。

昨天的 ETF 流量由 @FarsideUK 提供。

我們有 3.26 億美元的資金流出。

迄今為止最大的資金流出。

貝萊德并沒有將我們從 $GBTC 的手中拯救出來，這在價格走勢中是顯而易見的。$GBTC 有 4.435 億美元的流出，貝萊德有 7520 萬美元的流入，這是他們第二低的...... pic.twitter.com/hIingoYMly

- WhalePanda (@WhalePanda) 2024 年 3 月 20 日

加密貨幣對沖基金 Capriole Investments 的創(chuàng)始人 Charles Edwards 對比特幣近期價格走勢提供了歷史視角，表明 20% 至 30% 的回調(diào)屬于比特幣牛市的正常情況。

“A normal Bitcoin bullrun pullback is 30%. Back in December, we were already in the longest winning streak in Bitcoin’s history. A 20% pullback here takes us to $59K. A 30% pullback would be $51K. These are all levels we should be comfortable expecting as possibilities,” he stated.

Rekt Capital provided an analysis of Bitcoin’s price retracements since the 2022 bear market bottom, noting that the current pullback is only the fifth major retrace, with all previous ones exceeding a -20% depth and lasting from 14 to 63 days. In sum, there are two key takeaways about this current retracement

The closer Bitcoin gets to a -20% retrace, the better the opportunity becomes.

Retraces need time to fully mature (at least 2-3 weeks, at most 2-months).

#BTC

Since the November 2022 Bear Market Bottom…

Bitcoin has experienced the following retraces:

? -23% (February 2023) lasting 21 days

? -21% (April/May 2023) lasting 63 days

? -22% (July/September 2023) lasting 63 days

? -21% (January 2023) lasting 14 days

This… pic.twitter.com/cQyQOLA5Zv

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 19, 2024

Alex Thorn, head of research at crypto giant Galaxy Digital had previously warned of the likelihood of significant corrections during bull markets, suggesting that the current retrace is relatively standard. “Two weeks ago i warned that big corrections aren’t just possible but *likely* in Bitcoin bull markets. At -15%, this is pretty standard historically. Bull markets climb a wall of worry.”

Macro analyst Ted (@tedtalksmacro) focused specifically on the implications of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. He highlighted the massive outflows from spot BTC ETFs, attributing them to traders’ cautious stance ahead of the FOMC decision and the potential impact of tax season in the US.

However, following the drop to $60,800, Ted suggested that the market might have fully priced in the worst-case scenario, hinting at a potential bullish reversal if the FOMC’s decisions align with market expectations for interest rate cuts by the end of the year. He stated:

Time to bid. FOMC hedging done, worst case priced. Only thing that happens from here is that those protective positions unwind into or on the event today. Bulls should step up here soon. […] The market has fully priced in another hold from the Fed at today’s meeting, and is pricing 3 rate cuts from them by the end of the year. Anything that strays away from this from today’s new economic projection / dot plot material will make the market move sharply.

At press time, BTC traded at $62,979.

比特幣價格暴跌至60800美元最糟糕的時期已經(jīng)過去了嗎專家參與 Bitcoin price, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com