比特幣減半是加密貨幣領(lǐng)域的一個(gè)重要事件，大約每四年發(fā)生一次，減少了礦工在比特幣網(wǎng)絡(luò)上驗(yàn)證交易時(shí)獲得的獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)。

顧名思義，比特幣減半事件會(huì)將礦工挖掘?qū)⒔灰滋砑拥奖忍貛欧诸?lèi)賬的比特幣區(qū)塊的獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)減少一半。

該過(guò)程被硬編碼到比特幣協(xié)議中，以控制其供應(yīng)并保持其稀缺性和有限供應(yīng)狀態(tài)。

比特幣減半對(duì)交易者來(lái)說(shuō)至關(guān)重要，因?yàn)樗鼘?duì)比特幣（BTC）、其市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)以及更廣泛的加密貨幣市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格動(dòng)態(tài)產(chǎn)生直接影響。

本文探討了減半期間的比特幣交易策略、加密貨幣市場(chǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)、價(jià)格趨勢(shì)、交易信號(hào)和機(jī)會(huì)以及比特幣減半期間的整體投資者行為。

什么是比特幣減半？

比特幣在稱為節(jié)點(diǎn)的去中心化計(jì)算機(jī)網(wǎng)絡(luò)上運(yùn)行。

比特幣挖礦是創(chuàng)建有效區(qū)塊的過(guò)程，將交易記錄添加到比特幣的公共去中心化賬本中。

礦工是在保護(hù)和驗(yàn)證比特幣區(qū)塊鏈交易方面發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用的個(gè)人或?qū)嶓w。

作為對(duì)他們努力的回報(bào)，礦工們將獲得新創(chuàng)建的比特幣作為獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)。

比特幣挖礦使用硬件來(lái)解決復(fù)雜的數(shù)學(xué)問(wèn)題，從而驗(yàn)證和保護(hù)網(wǎng)絡(luò)上的交易。

礦工們利用計(jì)算能力并競(jìng)爭(zhēng)來(lái)解決這些難題，第一個(gè)解決這個(gè)難題的人可以向區(qū)塊鏈添加一個(gè)新的交易塊。

比特幣減半是指減少對(duì)解決復(fù)雜數(shù)學(xué)問(wèn)題和驗(yàn)證比特幣區(qū)塊鏈上交易的礦工的獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)。

它是比特幣創(chuàng)建者中本聰內(nèi)置于比特幣協(xié)議中的一種機(jī)制，大約每四年（或每 210,000 個(gè)區(qū)塊）發(fā)生一次。

在此活動(dòng)期間，成功向區(qū)塊鏈添加新區(qū)塊的礦工獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)將減少一半。

對(duì)于更廣泛的加密市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)，減半減少了進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)的新比特幣的供應(yīng)。

最初，當(dāng)比特幣首次推出時(shí)，礦工們每向區(qū)塊鏈添加一個(gè)區(qū)塊就會(huì)收到 50 個(gè)比特幣作為獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)。

第一次減半時(shí)，獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)降至25比特幣，隨后的2016年和2020年減半，獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)分別降至12.5和6.25比特幣。

到 2024 年 4 月，它將降至 3.125 BTC，并且該過(guò)程將持續(xù)到所有 2100 萬(wàn)個(gè)比特幣被開(kāi)采完畢。

減少挖礦獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)控制了新比特幣的發(fā)行，并模仿了黃金等貴金屬的稀缺特征。

比特幣的供應(yīng)量上限為 2100 萬(wàn)枚，隨著開(kāi)采新 BTC 的難度越來(lái)越大、資源越來(lái)越密集，發(fā)行速度減慢，造成稀缺性，并可能推高每個(gè)比特幣的價(jià)值。

Related: Bitcoin halving 2024: Everything you need to know

The 2024 Bitcoin halving

Although the timing of the next halving is uncertain because the Bitcoin algorithm governs the occurrence of halving events based on the creation of blocks, experts have pointed to a likely date in April 2024, aligning closely with the historical four-year cycle.

The final halving is predicted to occur in the year 2140, when the number of BTC circulating will reach its maximum supply of 21 million. At this point, no more new Bitcoin will be mined.

The Bitcoin halving is designed to be somewhat predictable to avoid causing significant disruptions to the network. Despite this, the lead-up to and aftermath of a halving often sees heightened volatility in the price of Bitcoin.

What is the historical impact of the Bitcoin halving on BTC price trends?

The price trends from historical data and fundamental analysis show that Bitcoin halvings tend to impact the price of Bitcoin favorably. The halving events typically instill optimism and a bullish trend in the cryptocurrency markets, translating into positive price movements.

The positive momentum can be attributed to various factors, primarily economic demand-supply dynamics. The decrease in Bitcoin’s supply issuance makes it more scarce, boosting demand and driving up its value.

Moreover, the halving event draws attention to the cryptocurrency space, changing investor behavior, attracting new investors and promoting fear of missing out (FOMO), bringing price predictions by influential commentators on social media and established media and higher community engagement, which often contributes to an uptick in trading activity.

The period preceding a halving frequently initiates conversations and educational campaigns regarding the foundational principles of Bitcoin, blockchain technology and the economics of cryptocurrencies.

However, while historical trends indicate a correlation between halving events and price increases, this is not guaranteed, and investors should do their own research to understand the price trends during each halving.

Consistent trends have become evident in price analysis during each Bitcoin halving. In 2016, the value of BTC stood at $665 before halving, surging to $2,250 a year later.

The halving in 2020 occurred in May when Bitcoin was priced at $8,740. By the end of that same year, BTC had soared to $29,000. Therefore, since a bullish market trend has typically followed each previous Bitcoin halving cycle, forecasts suggest the 2024 cycle will be no different.

Market volatility and trading opportunities during the Bitcoin halving

The anticipation and occurrence of a Bitcoin halving event are often accompanied by increased market volatility. This historical volatility creates both challenges and opportunities for traders. While the uncertainty may pose risks, it also opens avenues for strategic trading, especially for those adept at navigating price swings.

Traders can follow the prevailing trend in the lead-up to and after the halving, either to go long in a bullish trend or short in a bearish trend. Traders can identify key resistance or support levels to execute trades when the price breaks out of these levels.

Breakouts can help signify potential trend reversals or the continuation of an existing trend. Support levels are price levels where the Bitcoin price may stop falling, and resistance levels are where it tends to halt its upward movement.

Traders can identify these levels using technical analysis tools like trendlines, moving averages or horizontal support and resistance lines, waiting for the price to break decisively above a resistance level or below a support level. The breakout is confirmed when the price closes above or below the identified level, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment.

For example, in 2016, before the halving, Bitcoin’s price was trading at around $665. Traders observing a resistance level at $700 may have adopted a breakout strategy, and if the price broke decisively above $700, it could signal a bullish breakout.

Once the breakout is confirmed, traders may enter a long position (buy) if it is a bullish breakout or a short position (sell) if it is a bearish breakout. Stop-loss orders and take-profit levels are typically set to manage risk and secure profits.

Traders should continue to monitor the trade, adjusting their strategy as the market evolves. Breakout trades aim to capture the momentum generated by the price breaking through a significant level.

Breakout trading carries risks, and false breakouts can occur. Therefore, traders must exercise caution and do their research to filter out potential false breakouts.

Additionally, traders can explore price differentials across various crypto exchanges. Bitcoin’s volatility may create temporary pricing imbalances, and traders can capitalize on these arbitrage opportunities by buying on one exchange and selling on another.

Related: Bitcoin halving 2024 — Miners predict potential outcomes of reduced BTC rewards

Risk assessment amid the Bitcoin halving

Although the Bitcoin halving is commonly perceived as a positive occurrence, there are inherent risks, particularly in the short term. The period leading up to the halving often triggers speculative market behavior, introducing the potential for heightened volatility.

Additionally, it is crucial to recognize the possibility of a bear trend or temporary price corrections if market expectations are not aligned with the actual outcomes. Furthermore, traders must ensure that their cryptocurrency holdings are stored securely. Consider using a hardware wallet or a secure software wallet and enable two-factor authentication for added security.

市場(chǎng)情緒、監(jiān)管發(fā)展和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)因素可能會(huì)影響與比特幣減半相關(guān)的整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)格局，這凸顯了明智且適應(yīng)性強(qiáng)的投資策略方法的重要性。

本文不包含投資建議或建議。

每一項(xiàng)投資和交易行為都涉及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，讀者在做出決定時(shí)應(yīng)自行研究。

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