作者 |

尚旋，吳碩播客主持人，前 BitMEX 分析師

本文僅代表作者個(gè)人觀點(diǎn)，不代表吳碩的觀點(diǎn)和立場。

本文試圖從一個(gè)二級(jí)參與者的角度思考BLAST的運(yùn)營策略和$BLUR的分析和空投預(yù)測的獨(dú)特性，以及是否值得積極參與。

我們先來說說結(jié)論吧。

Blast是一線生態(tài)，值得關(guān)注和參與：

• 強(qiáng)大的搗蛋基因：從BLUR的積分體系到BLAST的跨鏈鎖倉和開發(fā)者空投，其策略被同行廣泛復(fù)制就是其成功的最大證明。

• 蛋糕很大：有強(qiáng)大的KOL網(wǎng)絡(luò)和10億美元+的資本積累

• 事實(shí)證明：BLAST 團(tuán)隊(duì)擁有成功的記錄。

  強(qiáng)大的執(zhí)行能力，對(duì)市場需求的出色理解，以及頂級(jí)VC的支持。

同時(shí)BLUR又是一把高性價(jià)比的一石二鳥的金鏟子：

• BLUR 是以太坊 NFT 平臺(tái)的絕對(duì)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者

• OpenSea在2022年牛市的一級(jí)市場估值為133億美元，現(xiàn)在BLUR的FDV僅為20億美元

• BLUR隱含BLAST空投價(jià)值占比30%以上（質(zhì)押時(shí)間敏感）

• BLUR短期內(nèi)無礦工拋售壓力

攪渾水的攪局者

上一個(gè)周期，因?yàn)閂C的地位還很高，公鏈的數(shù)量還很少，所以大家都默認(rèn)了割韭菜的邏輯。

在散戶、項(xiàng)目方和生態(tài)的博弈中，散戶被嚴(yán)重割斷。

用戶激勵(lì)往往只存在于生態(tài)系統(tǒng)支持的defi挖礦中。

因藍(lán)籌項(xiàng)目到來、“生態(tài)基金”出爐而絆倒的情況屢見不鮮。

現(xiàn)在怎么辦？

Rabby 目前僅支持 140 個(gè) EVM 鏈，不包括 Cosmos、BTCL2 和新的敘事重記卷，使發(fā)行硬幣變得更容易。

衷心祝愿投資者和基建項(xiàng)目方好運(yùn)。

I think BLAST is conservatively valued at $5 billion. If we refer to the current TGE ratio between mainstream and BLUR, BLAST’s initial circulation will be around 15%, with an implied MC of US$600 million, placing Blast’s market value ranking at 50–100 in the entire market. Irresponsible blind guessing, the valuation of Blast is most similar to RON, which is also an application-to-public chain ecosystem and has some similar backgrounds. The upper limit should probably be half of Arb. After all, Blast does not have the technology and L3 premium.

Currently, Blast is valued at US$3 billion on the pre-market trading platform Aevo, and the price fluctuates mainly between US$3 billion and US$10 billion.

Blast’s current price support is based on the following:

● Blast’s TVL has ranked 6th in the entire network and 2nd in L2.

● Blast has acquired 120,000 users and may become the L2 with the most daily active users.

● The probability of operational innovation and application explosion on Blast is high.

TVL

Blast's TVL currently stands at $1.3 billion, second only to Solana and 50% more than both Polygon and Avalanche. This ranks 6th among the current smart contract platforms. Although it may not be meaningful to define market value by TVL, this level of TVL will support the market value to a certain extent.

Also being warmed up with Blast cross-chain points is the launch of the test network on Blast and related ecological projects and the anticipation of airdrop incentives. Let’s take a look at some of the more interesting and popular new projects and tipping points we’ve seen so far:

● NFT projects come to Blast to issue coins

Since a large portion of Blast’s beneficiaries are old players in the NFT community, the support and relevance of NFT on Blast should be very high. I look forward to the linkage between NFT projects/communities and Blast.

ByWassies is an OG NFT project on Ethereum, with a floor price of 0.9eth. It is relatively well-known among degens in the Ethereum community. It focuses on crypto native culture. It has been confirmed that it will issue coins on blast and will issue tokens to blast/friendtech users. airdrop.

● Best places in Gamblefi

Blast’s emphasis on gamification, its huge KOL matrix, and its native yield design all make Blast the best growing soil for gambling projects.

Among them, Fantasy.top is a project that has received widespread discussion and praise in the testnet stage. It cleverly combines Sorare and Friend.tech. Players can increase the influence of KOLs by buying KOL cards. Thereby making profits, the gameplay is similar to fantasy sport. This project has touched the pain points of many players and added another innovation to the way of speculation.

In addition, Blur's native revenue can support lossless gambling/new creation. In the last cycle, Luna also tried to build a launchpad through UST's 20% revenue, and the effect was not bad.

● High volatility violent (profit) opportunities

Due to Blast’s participation and KOL lineup, and the TVL is large enough, there will definitely be many hot new opportunities on Blast, such as Thurster, which focuses on fair launch, has announced several cooperative coin issuance project parties, and has a strong lineup of backers , including Loomdart, CBB, DCFgod, Not3Lau, etc.

Risk points of Blast: (cannot be ignored)

● Blast’s cross-chain bridge risk is the multi-signature wallet.

● The risk of rugs on Blast may be higher, because projects that receive airdrops may be more short-sighted and run away after cheating the airdrop.

● If Blast’s pie cannot be enlarged through innovative applications, the currency price will inevitably go south like BLUR due to too much selling pressure and no new players will enter the market.

The implied airdrop value in BLUR

It is difficult to accurately calculate BLUR’s staking rewards because airdrop staking. Blur’s airdrop rewards largely depend on the time of staking. The longer the time, the higher the multiplier of points. The staking length of other stakers needs to be considered. Therefore, the following is a simple estimate without taking into account multiples, and is only used to determine the price support of BLUR in anticipation of the airdrop given to BLAST.

0.3 will be a strong support for BLUR’s currency price, because the hidden value in Blast can basically cover the cost of Blur. At the same time, we see that the current currency price of 0.6 is relatively reasonable. If the activity of NFT continues to decline, 0.6–0.7 will also be a great hedging resistance for BLUR.

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