On January 31, the crypto market was affected by the further tightening of global control over cryptocurrencies, and cryptocurrencies fell. As of the deadline, BTC fell by about 1.66% to around $42,660; ETH fell by 1.52% to around $2,305; SOL fell by 4.8% to around $99.7.

On January 30, the German police temporarily seized 50,000 BTC worth approximately US$2.17 billion in a piracy enforcement operation, and are currently investigating its commercial money laundering behavior;

On January 30, the Financial Times reported that the Metropolitan Police revealed for the first time that more than 60,000 BTC had been seized from a major Chinese investment fraud scheme (the case occurred in 2018).

On January 31, in order to prevent digital financial risks, my country’s anti-money laundering laws were overhauled for the first time. The crime of virtual asset money laundering will be included in it, making it clear that my country will prohibit providing or receiving services for virtual currencies.

Although my country has been "prohibiting" domestic crypto trading, mining and other related businesses since 2017, it has only stayed at "verbal orders" and tightened relevant "connecting agency controls" (banks, electricity bills, etc.).

The addition of it to the Anti-Money Laundering Law means that the era of "ambiguity" will be gone forever, and the enforcement of encryption-related transactions will become law-based. Although it will not be finally signed into law until after 2025, it will have a huge and irreversible negative impact on the crypto market.

You know, our country has always been an important part of the global crypto market transactions. In 2023, the transaction volume will account for about 30% of the world. It is also a country with the top development of cryptocurrency mining companies and "mining" in the world (accounting for 70% of the world before 2017). above).

In addition, a very large part of the trading volume of crypto exchanges including Binance, OKX, Gate and HTX comes from the Chinese market (half of the trading volume of Binance, OKX and HTX may come from my country).

BTC spot ETF sales

According to data from BitMEX Research, 10 BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of 5,689.9 BTC on the 13th trading day, and a cumulative net inflow of 27,339.7 BTC in the 13th trading day.

Among them, GBTC had a net outflow of 5,068 BTC, and the cumulative net outflow in 13 trading days was 131,549.7 BTC. BlackRock IBIT had a net inflow of 6870.3 BTC, and a cumulative net inflow of 63,409.5 BTC in 13 trading days. Fidelity FBTC had a net inflow of 2,734 BTC and a net inflow of US$119 million.

It is worth noting that the net outflow of BTC from Grayscale GBTC continues to slow down, while the remaining 9 stocks experienced a brief "counterattack" yesterday due to the emergence of publicity opportunities.

According to the latest news monitored by arkham, on the fourteenth trading day, Grayscale transferred 7963.56 BTC to the Coinbase Prime address, worth approximately US$341 million.

market expectation

Just now, the January ADP employment data released by the United States showed that the number of jobs increased by 107,000 in January, compared with the previous increase of 164,000 (which has been revised down to an increase of 158,000). The data was lower than market expectations and consistent with a gradual cooling of the labor market.

Under the current U.S. economic conditions, lower-than-expected employment data may be a good thing! Because, to a certain extent, this will accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts and help slow down balance sheet shrinkage in advance.

It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting on February 1 has been held. The market is currently optimistic about this meeting, believing that the dovish remarks released by the Federal Reserve will likely clarify the approximate time when the balance sheet reduction will end.

In the crypto market, unlike the previous bearish market bets, market sentiment has reversed during the previous rise.

According to data from The Block, the total trading volume of ETH options in January has soared to nearly US$20 billion (currently US$19.99 billion), of which approximately US$15 billion came from the Deribit platform. According to Deribit data, the majority (about 74,548) of the open ETH options contracts are call options with a strike price of $2,500 and will expire on Friday, February 23.

This means that the market is betting that ETH will rise in the upcoming February market due to the hype of the ETH spot ETF and the Ethereum Cancun upgrade.

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