比特幣 (BTC) 的價格走勢和 47,000 美元水平的頻繁波動反映了交易者在 1 月 9 日的猶豫不決。雖然市場受益于現(xiàn)貨 BTC ETF 批準(zhǔn)的預(yù)期，但也有交易者預(yù)計該事件是買入謠言，推銷新聞式事件。

今天我們來看看比特幣價格波動的原因。

現(xiàn)貨BTC ETF勢頭提振市場情緒

盡管存在一系列宏觀阻力，但比特幣價格繼續(xù)走高，波動性和未平倉合約增加。

1 月 8 日，所有現(xiàn)貨比特幣 ETF 申請人正式提交了該流程的最后一步。

現(xiàn)在，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 可以自由地批準(zhǔn)現(xiàn)貨比特幣 ETF。

前 SEC 主席杰伊·克萊頓 (Jay Clayton) 指出，隨著 1 月 9 日大量修訂后的 S-1 法案陸續(xù)通過，SEC 已經(jīng)沒有什么可以決定的了，預(yù)計會獲得批準(zhǔn)。

盡管一些分析師認(rèn)為比特幣價格有望突破 50,000 美元，但 BTC 的回報率已是 2023 年黃金回報率的兩倍多，并且這一勢頭將在 2024 年持續(xù)下去。MicroStrategy 首席執(zhí)行官兼比特幣看漲者 Michael Saylor 認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)貨比特幣 ETF 將是最大的選擇。自標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾 500 指數(shù)推出以來，所有金融領(lǐng)域都發(fā)生過這種情況。

圍繞比特幣的積極情緒導(dǎo)致比特幣市值于 2023 年 12 月 5 日超過伯克希爾哈撒韋公司，按此標(biāo)準(zhǔn)計算，比特幣仍然是第十大資產(chǎn)。

盡管 BTC 表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁，但 SEC 仍繼續(xù)謹(jǐn)慎行事，并于 1 月 6 日重新發(fā)布了加密貨幣 FOMO 警告。1 月 8 日，SEC 再次發(fā)布了有關(guān)加密貨幣的警告，盡管批準(zhǔn)似乎即將到來。

相關(guān)：

據(jù)報道，獲得批準(zhǔn)可能會產(chǎn)生 6000 億美元的新需求。

CryptoQuant 分析師認(rèn)為，ETF 的批準(zhǔn)將導(dǎo)致比特幣市值增加 1 萬億美元。

Galaxy Digital 預(yù)測現(xiàn)貨 BTC ETF 推出后第一年價格將上漲 74%。

即使是傳統(tǒng)銀行似乎也看好比特幣價格，渣打銀行預(yù)計到 2025 年底每比特幣價格將達(dá)到 20 萬美元。

The final filings required by the spot Bitcoin ETF applicants have highlighted a potential “fee war” emerging, with the institutions all trying to be the lowest. The lowest filed fee sits at 0.2% on Jan. 8.

The fee wars have led to Bitcoin futures open interest on CME reaching new all-time highs. On Jan. 9, there was over $6.28 billion in open interest.

BTC CME Futures open interest has made a new all time high w/ +$0.85B added in the last 4 days.Open interest now stands at $6.23B going into spot ETF approvals tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/FV5tAjAqUf

— McKenna (@Crypto_McKenna) January 9, 2024

Bitcoin dominated 2023 institutional investor inflows

While some investors may be awaiting increased liquidity and clarity from a spot ETF approval, institutional investors have already begun deploying funds to Bitcoin and crypto. According to CoinShares, institutional investors pushed $2.25 billion into crypto in 2023, which is a 2.7 times increase over 2022. The total year institutional inflow was the 3rd largest on record.

Related: How will Ethereum price react to Bitcoin ETF approval?

Of the $2.25 billion pushed to crypto assets in 2023, over $1.93 billion has flowed to Bitcoin specifically. The total assets under management (AUM) for Bitcoin dwarfs other digital assets with $36.17 billion currently deployed.

Retail Bitcoin interest increases

Institutional investors are not the only investor cohort showing increased interest in Bitcoin. The number of Bitcoin wallets holding non-zero amounts of BTC hit an all-time high on Jan. 2. There are over 51.6 million Bitcoin wallets holding non-zero amounts.

Not only are there more Bitcoin wallets than ever before, but because of consistent month-over-month price growth, BTC’s realized cap increased. The realized cap value on Jan. 8 was $436 billion, which is only 7% shy of the all-time high.

While realized cap is up, active bitcoin supply relative to vaulted supply is down which suggests that holders have yet to release dormant coins into circulation. Vaulted supply shows a bullish trend beyond long-term holders as they are coins that have not moved at all within the BTC network.

The spike in non-zero wallets, vaulted Bitcoin supply and increased realized cap highlights strong bullish optimism.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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