比特幣 (BTC) 可能迎來歷史性的一周，加密貨幣市場因美國批準現(xiàn)貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 而屏息以待。

許多人認為，批準將促進下一個加密貨幣牛市和加密貨幣采用浪潮。

有希望的現(xiàn)貨比特幣 ETF 發(fā)行人名單不斷增加，相關(guān)公司已于 1 月 8 日提交了最新的 S-1 表格修訂案。

這是今天早上 Cointucky Derby 起跑門的視圖。

我們重點關(guān)注這 11 個現(xiàn)貨 #Bitcoin ETF 申報者。

預(yù)計這些 N/A 中的大部分將在下周內(nèi)得到填補。

仍在 1 月 8 日至 10 日期間尋找潛在的批準訂單。

pic.twitter.com/HYdnPuiaRx

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) 2024 年 1 月 2 日

分析師和觀察人士預(yù)測，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 最終將在 1 月 9 日或 10 日批準第一只現(xiàn)貨比特幣 ETF。彭博社高級 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 相信“有 90% 的機會”推出現(xiàn)貨比特幣 ETF將獲得批準。

無論決定如何，無論是批準還是拒絕，加密貨幣市場無疑都會受到震動。

加密行業(yè)可能正在準備開香檳慶祝，但它的連鎖反應(yīng)又如何呢？

對于比特幣 ETF 市場來說，貝萊德和富達等管理著數(shù)萬億美元資產(chǎn)的巨頭的??到來可能會改變 Coinbase 或 MicroStrategy 等公司的基本面。

兩者都在公開市場上進行交易，但他們將如何應(yīng)對現(xiàn)貨比特幣 ETF 的批準？

MicroStrategy 的保費可能受到負面影響

現(xiàn)貨比特幣 ETF 可能會為傳統(tǒng)投資者進入加密貨幣市場打開大門，從而給 MSTR 等比特幣代理帶來負面壓力。

自從其聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人、執(zhí)行主席兼前首席執(zhí)行官 Micheal Saylor 決定收購 BTC 作為通脹對沖和在資產(chǎn)負債表上持有現(xiàn)金的替代方案以來，MicroStrategy 一直在購買比特幣。

在 2023 年 12 月 27 日的最近一次購買中，MicroStrategy 目前擁有 189,150 BTC，購買平均價格為 31,168 美元。

這家科技公司是持有 BTC 最多的上市公司，其次是加密貨幣挖礦公司 Marathon，持有 15,174 BTC，特斯拉則持有 10,725 BTC。

MicroStrategy 的 BTC 購買狂潮使該公司持有現(xiàn)有比特幣總供應(yīng)量的近 1%。

MicroStrategy 對比特幣的廣泛投資使該公司通過將其股票轉(zhuǎn)換為比特幣代理而處于獨特的地位。

由于 MicroStrategy 在納斯達克上市，傳統(tǒng)投資者擁有了間接投資比特幣的投資工具。

然而，如果現(xiàn)貨比特幣 ETF 獲得批準，MicroStrategy 可能會面臨激烈的競爭，并失去作為傳統(tǒng)市場比特幣代理的地位。

As Spencer Bogart, fundamental analyst and general partner at crypto venture capital Blockchain Capital, said in the Unchained podcast, a hypothetical approval of a spot in Bitcoin ETF is clearly “a headwind” for Saylor’s company.

According to Bogart, an approval could benefit MicroStrategy by raising its stock price due to its heavy exposure to Bitcoin. However, MicroStrategy investors should question how a spot Bitcoin ETF could affect its stock premium related to the BTC it holds.

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A premium occurs when a stock or share is issued above its par value. The premium of any stock is an abstract analysis; therefore, rates differ per analyst. A representative from the private bank, Julius Baer, told Cointelegraph that its MicroStrategy premium is 9%.

Bogart rates the actual premium of MicroStrategy at a 30% rate, meaning if an investor used it to track the price of Bitcoin, they would be paying a 30% premium.

Bogart said, “There’s got to be some significant percentage of MicroStrategy holders that are using it as their best proxy for Bitcoin exposure.”

If some investor’s sole purpose in buying MicroStrategy stock is to get the closest exposure possible to BTC without purchasing the asset itself, then a spot Bitcoin ETF approval could mean those investors decide to sell the stock in favor of an ETF. Bogart explained:

“Once a Bitcoin ETF is approved, presumably some percentage of those investors [in MicrStrategy] will switch over to the ETF product.”

Due to this shift in the traditional market, Bogart thinks that the extra value of MicroStrategy stock compared to the actual value of Bitcoin they own — otherwise known as a “premium” —might decrease.

As of April 11, 2023, MicroStrategy’s BTC holdings turned green as the price of Bitcoin increased. Even if there is selling pressure on MicroStrategy, Bogart said the tech company can still benefit from the growth of the adoption of Bitcoin.

A spot Bitcoin ETF can boost crypto adoption as the perfect crossover investment vehicle between the crypto and traditional markets. The existence of a spot Bitcoin ETF would provide an on-ramp for Wall Street capital to enter the Bitcoin ecosystem, pushing adoption in the long run and potentially translating into buying pressure for MicroStrategy stock.

Another positive factor for holding MicroStrategy instead of a spot Bitcoin ETF is that investors won’t need to pay a management fee, which, according to the latest documentation, varies between 0.24% for Bitwise and 1.5% for Grayscale. Saylor highlighted this during an interview with Bloomberg in December 2023:

“The ETFs are unlevered, and they charge a fee [...] We provide you leverage, but we don’t charge a fee. We offer a high-performance vehicle for people that are Bitcoin long investors.”

Another positive factor is that MicroStrategy is a thriving business that provides business intelligence (BI), mobile software and cloud-based services. Additionally, the company stands in a decent financial position as regards its Bitcoin investment, with an average purchase price is $31,168.

MicroStrategy’s shares have surged over 300% in 2023, outperforming Bitcoin as it rallied roughly 150% during the same period.

Coinbase: All-in as the custodian of spot Bitcoin ETF’s

American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase has closed deals with the world’s largest asset managers, including BlackRock, VanEck and Grayscale, to serve as custodians for their proposed Bitcoin ETFs.

The competition between Grayscale, Fidelity, ARK Invest, Franklin Templeton and others will be fierce as they each compete to become the ETF with the most liquidity.

Being the first to launch on the open market is a significant breakthrough, although the different companies may attract customers by playing with their fee structure or other technicalities.

Many see BlackRock as one of the most prominent candidates, but others such as ARK Invest, Bitwise, WisdomTree or Valkyrie have prior experience with Bitcoin futures and a crypto-savvy approach.

Coinbase has gone all-in on the spot Bitcoin ETF race, positioning itself as the custodial service to trust. The exchange will gain more revenue and possibly generate more demand from other big players in the traditional investment sector as it becomes the custodian of choice for the Bitcoin held by the ETF funds.

Coinbase could successfully expand its existing model, which, in addition to gaining revenue through internal volumes, also pockets cash flows through a variety of subscriptions and services. These factors provide a solid foundation for Coinbase stock to attract investors, and in 2023, its value surged 370%, according to data from TradingView.

There are other factors that could potentially put pressure on the Coinbase stock price. The SEC currently has a pending case against Coinbase for failing to register its staking-as-a-service program. When the SEC initially announced its case against Coinbase on June 6, 2023, the stock price sank 15%.

A week of Bitcoin volatility

The BTC price is highly sensitive to the SEC’s decision to approve or reject the spot Bitcoin ETF.

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On Jan. 2, Markus Thielen, head of research for crypto platform Matrixport, said that he thinks the SEC would reject the current BTC ETF applications, as the agency believes they “fall short of a critical requirement.”

This suggestion of an SEC rejection and the reaction of the crypto community on X (formerly Twitter) was enough to tank Bitcoin’s price by 7% on Jan. 3.

The rapid price decline highlights the price volatility of Bitcoin and the many sellers waiting on the sidelines for news of the decision from the SEC.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。

每一項投資和交易行為都涉及風(fēng)險，讀者在做出決定時應(yīng)自行研究。

熱點：etf 比特幣 特幣 ETF 批準