回顧我過(guò)去對(duì)未來(lái)的預(yù)測(cè)，很明顯我的專(zhuān)欄代表了很多一廂情愿的想法。

就像奧斯卡·王爾德曾經(jīng)說(shuō)過(guò)的，除了誘惑他可以抵抗任何事情，我可以預(yù)測(cè)任何事情，只要不是關(guān)于未來(lái)的事情。

盡管我對(duì)某一年會(huì)發(fā)生什么的判斷經(jīng)常是錯(cuò)誤的，但我確實(shí)認(rèn)為我的一些主要預(yù)測(cè)在方向上是正確的。

我也不甘于做一個(gè)旁觀者。

我正在構(gòu)建區(qū)塊鏈業(yè)務(wù)和技術(shù)，其明確目的是影響未來(lái)的道路。

這篇文章是 CoinDesk 的“Crypto 2024”預(yù)測(cè)包的一部分。

Paul Brody 是安永全球區(qū)塊鏈負(fù)責(zé)人兼 CoinDesk 專(zhuān)欄作家。

我正在努力構(gòu)建的未來(lái)是建立在公共以太坊生態(tài)系統(tǒng)之上的，具有強(qiáng)大的、符合監(jiān)管要求的商業(yè)交易和有意義的隱私保護(hù)。

在這種開(kāi)放、審查和抗壟斷的模型中，我們可以構(gòu)建一種通用的業(yè)務(wù)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，使業(yè)務(wù)交互成為一種簡(jiǎn)單、可擴(kuò)展且可靠的體驗(yàn)。

在未來(lái)的愿景中，金融服務(wù)很容易整合并服務(wù)于其預(yù)期目的：將資本輸送到從初創(chuàng)企業(yè)到綠色能源項(xiàng)目的有用項(xiàng)目。

這里的道路比我想要的要慢得多，但進(jìn)步是真實(shí)的。

我在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域工作了 10 年，其中 8 個(gè)在安永擔(dān)任這個(gè)職位，我們看到企業(yè)擁抱代幣化，以太坊已經(jīng)成為全球標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，許可鏈的時(shí)尚雖然沒(méi)有消亡，但正在慢慢褪色出去。

企業(yè)還接受了法定貨幣和加密貨幣，并且生態(tài)系統(tǒng)已在很大程度上克服了 L2 的可擴(kuò)展性挑戰(zhàn)。

我們?cè)诶昧阒R(shí)工具和應(yīng)用程序解決隱私挑戰(zhàn)的道路上也取得了顯著的進(jìn)展。

與往常一樣，大部分進(jìn)展都是在加密貨幣冬天的黑暗時(shí)期取得的。

我們還沒(méi)有走出冬天，但我希望我們離冬天不遠(yuǎn)了。

事實(shí)上，我認(rèn)為從 2024 年 6 月開(kāi)始在歐洲逐步實(shí)施加密資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng) (MiCA)，這是我們邁向下一個(gè)區(qū)塊鏈夏季之路上的一個(gè)重要里程碑。

我對(duì)即將到來(lái)的夏天有三個(gè)希望，我將其稱(chēng)為“預(yù)測(cè)”。

可持續(xù)夏季

首先，事實(shí)證明今年夏天更具可持續(xù)性。

雖然宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變化肯定影響了之前的區(qū)塊鏈夏季，但我相信其他問(wèn)題產(chǎn)生了更大的影響，包括以太坊等生態(tài)系統(tǒng)達(dá)到其容量限制并產(chǎn)生高額費(fèi)用、欺詐浪潮以及機(jī)構(gòu)資本池的限制。

This time could be different. L2s have given Ethereum vast capacity, regulators around the world are unlocking institutional capital flows such as pension funds while simultaneously giving investors greater protections from rug-pulls and frauds. These measures are still immature and there are no financial ecosystems without fraud and risk, but in the next summer Ethereum and crypto will look and feel much closer to the rest of the financial ecosystem.

Convergence of stablecoins and CBDCs

My second prediction is that we will start to see the world's central banks start to converge upon both regulated stablecoins and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as the preferred approach to implementing CBDCs. This won't be a result of regulators suddenly embracing decentralization and individual control. It will just be a practical choice.

Nearly all CBDC plans today are connected to tokenized, but centralized systems ??almost none of which plan for real programmability. As a result, central banks are finding that while CBDC prototypes and pilots do work, technically, their "value-add" over existing Real Time Gross Settlement systems is quite limited.

None of the ways to "fix" these shortcomings look very appealing. For central banks to build fully programmable and open systems on a par with Ethereum, seems like a monumental technical challenge and deploying a single national coin onto a public network invites potential hacking risks.

Read more: Paul Brody - Under the Hood, 2023 Was a Highly Constructive Year for Crypto

There will be some cases where public sector managed CBDCs will go ahead and have compelling value propositions. I believe these will be most gripping in countries that have not yet implemented national real-time payments (there aren't many) or those where governments want to see more intense (and low cost) competition in the consumer payments space. The global consumer payments market is highly consolidated and, in many countries like the U.S. and Canada, payment fees look remarkably high compared to low-cost leaders such as Australia.

Despite these challenges and the lack of a clear value proposition, many central banks seem determined to deploy both retail and wholesale CBDCs. I confess I don’t understand what is driving this push, but am coming to suspect that the push towards CBDCs has more to do with gaining additional power and control over the financial system, than as something that really solves a major problem.

Even with a CBDC, I believe regulated stablecoins are coming as well. CBDCs won’t “quench” the demand for blockchain-based programmable money that can be used in DeFi services or for digital asset purchases.

Industrial applications progress

最后，希望看到工業(yè)應(yīng)用不斷進(jìn)步。

這是你能得到的最慢、最乏味的進(jìn)展，但它正在發(fā)生。

企業(yè)很容易被最近的一些加密貨幣交易所等丑聞嚇倒，但我希望，隨著記憶的褪色和解決方案的改進(jìn)，我們將看到采用的穩(wěn)步重新加速。

我不能向你保證 2024 年夏天會(huì)到來(lái)，但春天肯定已經(jīng)在空氣中。

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