又一年，我們 NewsBTC 團(tuán)隊(duì)推出了另一個加密貨幣假期特別節(jié)目。

在接下來的一周，我們將剖析 2023 年的跌宕起伏，揭示未來幾個月可能為加密貨幣和 DeFi 投資者帶來的變化。

和去年一樣，我們致敬查爾斯·迪克的經(jīng)典著作《圣誕頌歌》，并聚集了一群專家來討論加密市場的過去、現(xiàn)在和未來。

通過這種方式，我們的讀者可能會發(fā)現(xiàn)一些線索，讓他們能夠穿越 2024 年及其潛在趨勢。

與 Blofin 一起度過加密貨幣假期：深入探討 2024 年

我們與加密貨幣教育和投資公司 Blofin 共同結(jié)束了本次假日特別活動。

在我們 2022 年的采訪中，布洛芬談到了 FTX、三箭資本 (3AC) 崩潰和 Terra (LUNA) 造成的影響。

與此同時，該公司預(yù)測比特幣和加密貨幣市場將從灰燼中回歸。

比特幣的復(fù)蘇似乎正在順利進(jìn)行，突破了 40,000 美元大關(guān)。

這是他們告訴我們的：

問：鑒于 2022 年和 2023 年觀察到的長期看跌趨勢，這些時期的嚴(yán)重程度和影響與之前的低迷時期相比如何？

隨著比特幣現(xiàn)已突破 40,000 美元的門檻，這是否意味著熊市的最終結(jié)束，或者投資者是否應(yīng)該做好準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對潛在的市場波動？

布洛芬：

與之前的加密貨幣衰退相比，2022-2023 年的熊市顯得更為溫和。

與之前的周期不同的是，在上一輪牛市中，穩(wěn)定幣的廣泛使用和海量傳統(tǒng)機(jī)構(gòu)的進(jìn)入給加密市場帶來了超過1000億美元的現(xiàn)金流動性，而且大部分現(xiàn)金流動性并沒有因?yàn)橘Y金問題而離開加密市場。 2022 年一系列活動。

即使在投資者宏觀預(yù)期最悲觀的 2023 年 3 月、流動性觸底的 2023 年第三季度，加密市場仍然擁有不低于 1200 億美元的穩(wěn)定幣形式的現(xiàn)金流動性，這提供了足夠的支撐和抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力適用于 BTC、ETH 和山寨幣。

同樣，由于現(xiàn)金流動性充裕，在2022-2023年的熊市中，我們并沒有經(jīng)歷類似2020年3月和2021年5月的“流動性枯竭”情況。2023年，隨著加密貨幣市場的逐步復(fù)蘇，流動性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也隨之降低。與 2022 年相比大幅減少。

唯一令人不安的是，2023年夏秋兩季，超過5%的無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回報(bào)讓投資者更加關(guān)注貨幣市場，并帶來了2019年以來加密市場最低的波動性。

然而，低波動性并不表明經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

2023年第四季度加密市場的表現(xiàn)證明，更多的投資者實(shí)際上是在觀望。

他們不會離開加密貨幣市場，而是在等待合適的時機(jī)進(jìn)入。

Currently, the total market cap of the crypto market has recovered to more than 55% of its previous peak. It can be considered that the crypto market has emerged from the bear market cycle, but the current stage should be called a “technical bull market” rather than a “real bull market.”

Again, let’s start our explanation from a cash liquidity perspective. Although the price of BTC has reached $44k once, the size of cash liquidity in the entire crypto market has only rebounded slightly, reaching around $125b. $125b in cash supports over $1.6T in total crypto market cap, implying an overall leverage ratio of over 12x.

Additionally, many tokens have seen significant increases in their annualized funding rates, even exceeding 70%. High overall leverage and high funding rates mean that speculative sentiment has as much impact on the crypto market as improving fundamentals. However, the higher the leverage ratio, the lower the investors’ risk tolerance, and the high financing costs are difficult to sustain in the long term. Any bad news could trigger deleveraging and cause massive liquidations.

Furthermore, real improvements in liquidity are yet to come. The current federal funds rate remains at 5.5%. In the interest rate market, traders expect the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve to occur no earlier than March and the European Central Bank and Bank of England to cut interest rates for the first time no earlier than May. At the same time, central bank officials from various countries have repeatedly emphasized that interest rate cuts “depend on the data” and “will not happen soon.”

Therefore, when liquidity levels have not really improved, the recovery and rebound of the crypto market are gratifying, but the “l(fā)everage-based” recovery is significantly related to investors’ financing costs and risk tolerance, and the potential callback risk is relatively high. In fact, in the options market, investors have begun to accumulate put options after experiencing a rise in December to deal with the risk of any possible pullback after the start of 2024.

Q: Right now, we are seeing Bitcoin reach new highs. Do you think we are in the early days of a full bull run? What has changed in the market that enabled the current price action; is it the Bitcoin spot ETF or the US Fed hinting at a loser policy or the upcoming Halving? What is the big narrative that will go on in 2024?

Blofin:

As stated above, we are still some way away from the early stages of a full-blown bull market. “Technical bull market” better describes the current market status. This round of technical bull market started with improved expectations: the spot Bitcoin ETF narrative triggered investors’ expectations for the return of funds to the crypto market, while the peak of the federal funds rate and expectations for an interest rate cut next year reflected the improvement at the macro environment level.

In addition, some funds from traditional markets have tried to be the “early birds” and make early arrangements in the crypto market. These are all important reasons why BTC’s price is back above $40k.

However, we believe that changes in the macro environment are the most important influencing elements among the above factors. The arrival of expectations of interest rate cuts has allowed investors to see the dawn of a return to the bull market in risk assets. It is not hard to find that in November and December, not only Bitcoin experienced a sharp rise, but Nasdaq, the Dow Jones Index, and gold all hit all-time highs. This pattern typically occurs at or near the end of each economic cycle.

The beginning and end of a cycle can significantly impact asset pricing. At the beginning of a cycle, investors typically convert their risky assets into cash or treasury bonds. When the cycle ends, investors will take cash liquidity back to the market and buy risk-free assets without distinction. Risk assets typically experience a “widespread and significant” rise at this time. The above situation is what we have experienced in 2023Q4.

As for the Bitcoin halving, we prefer that the positive effects it brings result from an improvement in the macro environment rather than the result of the “halving.” Bitcoin had not become a mainstream asset with institutional acceptance when the first and second halvings occurred. However, after 2021, as the market microstructure changes, institutions have gained sufficient influence over Bitcoin, and each halving coincides with the economic cycle to a higher degree.

In 2024, we will witness the end of the tightening cycle and the beginning of a new easing cycle. But compared with every previous cycle change, this cycle change may be relatively stable. Although the period of high inflation is over, inflation is still “one step away” from returning to the target range.

Therefore, all major central banks will avoid releasing liquidity too quickly and be wary of the economy overheating again. For the crypto market, a solid liquidity release will lead to a mild bull run. Perhaps it is difficult for us to have the opportunity to see a bull market similar to that in 2021, but the new bull market will last relatively longer. More new chances will also emerge with the participation of more new investors and the emergence of new narratives.

Q: Last year, we spoke about the most resilient sectors during the Crypto Winter. Which sectors and coins will likely benefit from a new Bull Run? We are seeing the Solana ecosystem bloom along with the NFT market; what trends could benefit in the coming months?

Blofin:

可以肯定的是，當(dāng)牛市回歸時，交易所（無論是CEX還是DEX）是最先受益的。

隨著交易量和用戶活躍度再次開始反彈，可以預(yù)期他們的收入（包括交易所的手續(xù)費(fèi)收入、代幣上幣收入等）將大幅增加，交易所代幣的表現(xiàn)也可能會受益于此。

同時，與交易和資金流通相關(guān)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施也將受益于新的牛市，例如公鏈和Layer-2。

當(dāng)流動性回歸加密市場時，加密基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施是不可或缺的一部分：流動性必須首先進(jìn)入公鏈，然后才能轉(zhuǎn)移到各個項(xiàng)目和底層代幣。

在上一次的牛市中，以太坊網(wǎng)絡(luò)的擁堵和高昂的gas成本受到了很多用戶的詬病，這成為了Layer-2出現(xiàn)和發(fā)展的契機(jī)，也促進(jìn)了很多非以太坊公鏈的發(fā)展和壯大， Solana 和 Avalanche 是最大的受益者。

因此，隨著新一輪牛市的到來，更多的二層和非以太坊公鏈的使用場景和可能性將會被發(fā)現(xiàn)。

以太坊自然也不甘落后；

2024年，我們可能會見證公鏈生態(tài)和代幣的新一輪繁榮。

此外，作為對BTC最新應(yīng)用的探索，BRC-20的發(fā)展也不容忽視。

作為 2023 年出現(xiàn)的基于 BTC 網(wǎng)絡(luò)的新代幣發(fā)行標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，BRC-20 允許用戶基于 BTC 網(wǎng)絡(luò)部署標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化合約或鑄造 NFT，為最古老、最成熟的公鏈提供新的敘述和用例。

隨著流動性的回歸，BRC-20相關(guān)應(yīng)用的探索和開發(fā)可能會逐漸開始，并與其他公鏈生態(tài)一起在新的“溫和但長期”牛市中取得長足進(jìn)步。

比特幣的價(jià)格在日線圖上呈上漲趨勢。

來源：

封面圖片來自 Unsplash，圖表來自 Tradingview

熱點(diǎn)：加密貨幣 加密 卡爾