在 2017 年牛市期間，首次代幣發(fā)行 (ICO) 風(fēng)靡一時(shí)。

上一次牛市發(fā)生在 2021 年，主要由去中心化金融 (DeFi) 和流動(dòng)性挖礦的增長(zhǎng)主導(dǎo)。

現(xiàn)在，隨著新一輪牛市周期的加快，2024 年將帶來(lái)一系列更復(fù)雜的金融產(chǎn)品上鏈。

從復(fù)雜的衍生品到結(jié)構(gòu)性產(chǎn)品，大型工具和交易員將進(jìn)入數(shù)字資產(chǎn)游樂(lè)場(chǎng)。

正如我們?cè)谥暗闹芷谥锌吹降哪菢樱用苌鷳B(tài)系統(tǒng)往往緊密跟隨傳統(tǒng)金融（TradFi）市場(chǎng)。

畢竟，比特幣（BTC）最初被設(shè)計(jì)為一種替代支付系統(tǒng)。

ICO 甚至借用了 TradFi 的首次公開(kāi)募股 (IPO) 的名字，其歷史可以追溯到 1783 年。

與此同時(shí)，DeFi 生態(tài)系統(tǒng)模仿了傳統(tǒng)的金融服務(wù)，例如借貸和收益生成，只是以去中心化的方式進(jìn)行。

因此，更復(fù)雜的金融工具最終應(yīng)該進(jìn)行 Web3 改造，這似乎是很自然的事情。

相關(guān)：即使在比特幣現(xiàn)貨 ETF 之后，期貨也將成為城里最好的加密貨幣游戲

我們已經(jīng)看到加密貨幣衍生品市場(chǎng)的驚人增長(zhǎng)。

11 月份衍生品交易量環(huán)比飆升 37.3% 至 2.58 萬(wàn)億美元，為 3 月份以來(lái)的最高水平，但其在整個(gè)加密市場(chǎng)的份額從 9 月份的 79.9% 下降至 73.3%。

與此同時(shí)，加密貨幣期權(quán)的未平倉(cāng)合約一直創(chuàng)下歷史新高。

每月現(xiàn)貨交易量與每月衍生品交易量相比。

來(lái)源：CCData

除了健康的復(fù)蘇，我們還看到更加復(fù)雜的衍生產(chǎn)品，例如去中心化永續(xù)期貨交易的興起和創(chuàng)新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理機(jī)制。

當(dāng)我們進(jìn)入新的一年時(shí)，這將是創(chuàng)新的關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域，同時(shí)我們還將看到模仿傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)品的新復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品的推出。

特別是，我們將看到加密貨幣領(lǐng)域的奇異期權(quán)、結(jié)構(gòu)性產(chǎn)品和債務(wù)抵押債券（CDO）的增長(zhǎng)。

我們已經(jīng)看到了一些加密 CDO 的嘗試——尤其是 2021 年 Opium Finance 的嘗試——而加密結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)正在悄然興起。

然而，這些復(fù)雜的產(chǎn)品仍然只占整個(gè)加密市場(chǎng)的一小部分。

例如，鏈上結(jié)構(gòu)性產(chǎn)品僅占加密貨幣總市值的0.21%，為大幅擴(kuò)張?zhí)峁┝丝赡苄浴?/p>

提供鏈上結(jié)構(gòu)化產(chǎn)品的 DeFi 協(xié)議，按時(shí)間價(jià)值鎖定排名。

來(lái)源：CCDA

So what will drive interest in these innovative derivative products? I see three key drivers of this trend in 2024 and beyond. First, growing institutional interest in digital assets will naturally drive demand and innovation in this space. The traditional derivatives market holds an estimated value of 10 times the world’s total gross domestic product (GDP), with derivatives available for virtually every asset imaginable. The crypto derivatives market will see similar momentum in growth as sophisticated traders pile in.

Second, as crypto winter-induced nervousness subsides, investors will once again seek outsized returns on their digital assets. But this time, we can expect less interest in yield farming due to the high risk of hacks. Instead, attention will turn to derivatives and structured products. Often offering the potential for sky-high returns over 100% APY, these complex products offer one thing that yield farming doesn’t: downside protection. And this brings us to our last point.

After the collapse of Terra, Celsius, FTX et al. in 2022, battle-hardened investors are looking for guarantees that their assets won’t just disappear in a puff of smoke. This makes products with a degree of capital protection look attractive. Complex financial vehicles like structured products often offer capital protection, with some — like the so-called "Shark Fin" structure — even paying a guaranteed coupon.

Related: BONK, PEPE and SHIB are a menace to crypto

Structured products essentially allow investors to make an educated guess on the future direction of travel for their chosen underlying asset — in crypto, this could be Bitcoin. With a Shark Fin product, guessing correctly could result in handsome returns. But even if the guess is wrong, the investor still gets his money back and walks away with a small coupon. The only catch is that his money could be converted to the underlying asset (i.e. USDT to Bitcoin) at an unfavorable price. But this is a much less bitter pill to swallow than, say, the liquidation risk in yield farming.

This in-built protection is exactly what made structured products so popular in the traditional financial market, at least before the financial crisis decimated trust in complex investment vehicles. At launch in the 1990s, their purpose was to offer investors tailored risk-return outcomes, making them suitable for a wide array of portfolios — and they went down a treat.

隨著加密貨幣市場(chǎng)的成熟以及焦點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)向多元化投資組合中更可預(yù)測(cè)的回報(bào)，這些工具將再次獲得陽(yáng)光時(shí)刻。

在仍受 2022 年事件影響的市場(chǎng)中，資本保值對(duì)許多投資者來(lái)說(shuō)變得更加重要，尤其是在加密貨幣突破主流之際。

需求總是推動(dòng)創(chuàng)新，因此我們預(yù)計(jì)鏈上結(jié)構(gòu)化產(chǎn)品領(lǐng)域?qū)⒊霈F(xiàn)新產(chǎn)品，以及新的復(fù)雜衍生品項(xiàng)目，從而刺激這些領(lǐng)域資產(chǎn)的快速增長(zhǎng)。

這將是當(dāng)前牛市的決定性創(chuàng)新之一。

Lucas Kiely

本文僅供一般參考之用，無(wú)意也不應(yīng)被視為法律或投資建議。

這里表達(dá)的觀點(diǎn)、想法和意見(jiàn)僅屬于作者個(gè)人，并不一定反映或代表Cointelegraph的觀點(diǎn)和意見(jiàn)。

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