[蒂娜詩篇]8.6 億美元轉(zhuǎn)移至交易所的比特幣價(jià)格預(yù)測——預(yù)示著即將出現(xiàn)大規(guī)模拋售？

時(shí)間：2023-12-18|瀏覽：341

隨著加密貨幣市場進(jìn)入又一周的交易，比特幣（BTC）小幅下跌至 41,978 美元，周日跌幅近 50%。這一舉措恰逢價(jià)值約 8.6 億美元的大量比特幣被轉(zhuǎn)移到交易所，這可能表明即將出現(xiàn)潛在的大規(guī)模拋售。

雪上加霜的是，Coinbase 要求明確的加密貨幣監(jiān)管遭到拒絕后，將在法庭上與美國證券交易委員會(huì)對峙，導(dǎo)致行業(yè)內(nèi)的緊張局勢升級。

@intotheblock 指出，#Bitcoin 本周停滯在 42,000 美元左右，因?yàn)橥顿Y者將 8.6 億美元的 BTC 轉(zhuǎn)移到交易所，這表明獲利了結(jié)。盡管出現(xiàn)短期回調(diào)，但一場“完美風(fēng)暴正在醞釀”。一位專家表示，2024 年。https://t.co/rb0zHKkVGQ

— CoinDesk (@CoinDesk) 2023 年 12 月 16 日

與此同時(shí)，貝萊德已在四個(gè)不同場合與美國證券交易委員會(huì)就其現(xiàn)貨比特幣 ETF 的申請進(jìn)行討論，突顯了該領(lǐng)域日益增長的興趣和審查。

在這一切之中，比特幣生態(tài)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)的三個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)推動(dòng)者正在被忽視，這可能為意想不到的市場動(dòng)態(tài)奠定基礎(chǔ)。

讓我們更深入地探討這一點(diǎn)。

Coinbase 與 SEC：監(jiān)管清晰度之戰(zhàn)

令人驚訝的是，Coinbase Global 要求監(jiān)管明確的請?jiān)副幻绹C券交易委員會(huì) (SEC) 拒絕的消息幫助推高了比特幣的價(jià)格。

盡管監(jiān)管受挫，市場參與者似乎仍將這一發(fā)展視為比特幣領(lǐng)域韌性的證據(jù)。

鑒于比特幣已經(jīng)表現(xiàn)出改善的跡象，投資者可能會(huì)將針對美國證券交易委員會(huì)的法律挑戰(zhàn)視為解決監(jiān)管問題的一步。

突發(fā)新聞：SEC 和主席 Gary Gensler 駁回了 Coinbase 的規(guī)則制定請?jiān)笗?https://t.co/qp8CkdU0r5

— Blockworks (@Blockworks_) 2023 年 12 月 15 日

Coinbase 通過法律渠道尋求進(jìn)一步明確性，這增強(qiáng)了一些交易者的信心，這對比特幣的價(jià)格產(chǎn)生了積極影響。

由于加密貨幣市場充滿活力，投資者應(yīng)繼續(xù)對任何可能預(yù)示市場變化的事件保持警惕。

貝萊德尋求比特幣 ETF：與 SEC 的深入對話

全球最大的資產(chǎn)管理公司貝萊德已四次與美國證券交易委員會(huì)（SEC）會(huì)面，討論其關(guān)于現(xiàn)貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的提議。這些會(huì)議的主要議題是納斯達(dá)克提議的規(guī)則變更，以列出和交易 iShares 比特幣信托的股票。

最近，SEC 還與 Hashdex、Fidelity、Franklin Templeton 和 Grayscale Investments 就其現(xiàn)貨比特幣 ETF 的申請進(jìn)行了討論。

大突破

貝萊德昨晚與美國證券交易委員會(huì)舉行了另一次會(huì)議。 pic.twitter.com/1qrMO13SWr

— BITCOINLFG? (@bitcoinlfgo) December 16, 2023

Notably, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated that the regulatory body is reassessing spot Bitcoin ETF submissions in light of recent court decisions. This has increased expectations that the SEC will approve spot Bitcoin ETFs, positively influencing Bitcoin’s price.

According to Bloomberg analysts, there is a 90% chance that the proposal will be approved by January 10. Such approval could lead to increased investor optimism and potentially boost demand for Bitcoin.

Under the Radar: Three Overlooked BTC Network Movers

As the main driver of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to be the market leader, attracting considerable attention. To assess Bitcoin’s performance and growth, investors closely monitor several parameters beyond standard indicators like those on CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin’s Total Hashrate Regains Upward Momentum Alongside Hash Price Rise

Barring any major shifts in the coming week, Bitcoin’s difficulty is poised for an upswing. Projections based on current data suggest an increase ranging from 1.64% to 4.5% on Dec. 23. According to data…

— Samantha Renolds (@SamanthaRenolds) December 17, 2023

Three important on-chain indicators demonstrate its dynamics.

First, according to the distribution of addresses based on holding duration, 69.23% of all addresses are ‘Holders,’ meaning they have retained Bitcoin for more than a year. This group significantly outnumbers ‘Traders’ (6.78%), who hold for at least three months, and ‘Cruisers’ (23.99%), who sell frequently.

Second, the hashrate—a proxy for Bitcoin’s network difficulty—is crucial. On September 1, the hashrate was 368,924,260.618 TH/s, and it has currently risen to 493,313,217.742 TH/s. A higher hashrate not only enhances network security but also indirectly contributes to the asset’s scarcity.

Lastly, the exchange net flow, which is currently a negative $62.57 million, indicates a net outflow from exchanges. This trend could reduce selling pressure and improve sentiment surrounding Bitcoin’s price. These measurements might be viewed positively by investors, potentially boosting Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Bitcoin, the forerunner of the cryptocurrency market, is trading at $42,375 today, with a substantial 24-hour trading volume of $17.26 billion.

Analyzing the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s pivot point is at $41,735, coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. We observe immediate resistance at $42,885, followed by higher resistance levels at $44,738 and $46,020.

#BitcoinUpdate: BTC trades at $42,375 with a 0.17% uptick.

Key levels to watch:

Pivot: $41,735

Resistances: $42,885, $44,738, $46,020

Supports: $40,700, $39,775, $38,350 RSI at 43, hinting neutrality.

Above $41,735? Bullish trend ahead! #CryptoNews #BTCForecast

— Arslan Ali (@forex_arslan) December 17, 2023

相反，直接支撐位于 40,700 美元（38.2% 斐波那契水平），進(jìn)一步支撐位于 39,775 美元（50% 斐波那契水平）和 38,350 美元（61.8% 斐波那契水平）。

相對強(qiáng)弱指數(shù) (RSI) 目前為 43，表明市場情緒中性。該數(shù)字表明既沒有超買也沒有超賣，但可能傾向于看跌情緒。

50 天指數(shù)移動(dòng)平均線 (EMA) 位于 42,300 美元，與比特幣當(dāng)前價(jià)格密切相關(guān)，表明潛在的短期看漲趨勢。

圖表分析顯示，比特幣的上升趨勢線支撐在 41,735 美元大關(guān)附近。燭臺(tái)收盤價(jià)低于該趨勢線或樞軸點(diǎn)區(qū)域可能會(huì)引發(fā)看跌勢頭，推動(dòng)價(jià)格升至 50% 或 61.8% 斐波那契水平。

總之，比特幣在 41,735 美元上方的整體趨勢似乎看漲。短期預(yù)測表明，比特幣可能會(huì)在未來幾天測試阻力位，特別是如果它維持在樞軸點(diǎn)和 50 EMA 之上的話。